Victory would put Ireland in the driving seat

Sporting intuition and mathematical expertise are being invoked in equal measure as the approach to this evening's game in the Zalgiris Stadium in Vilnius, invites comparisons with other, traumatic times in Irish football. After a spell in which World Cup mania was a phrase used almost exclusively in the past tense, it's suddenly fashionable again for people with only a peripheral interest in sport, to identify a football game as one of the week's focal points.

It's still some way short of the euphoria which swept the country in 1990 and again four years later, but should the Republic of Ireland qualify for the World Cup finals for a third consecutive occasion in France next summer, the wheels of a mini-industry will he rolling again in a matter of months.

But if Mick McCarthy has devised a master plan for victory, he is still not prepared to comment on it.

Yet again, he was at pains to deflect the difficult questions at his morning press conference at the match venue, declining to talk about the possible make up of his team.

Nothing can be determined this evening, pending the final set of games in the qualifying series on October 11th. What is certain however, is that victory here would establish Ireland as overwhelming favourites, to go through to the play-offs for second placed teams.

A draw would postpone the day of reckoning until the last game against Romania at Lansdowne Road but what Ireland cannot afford is to lose now and leave Lithuania with the task of taking just one point from their visit to Macedonia, to make certain of going through.

Reminded of the growing climate of expectancy, McCarthy said: "Naturally, I'd love to complete the job here and put the Lithuanians in a position in which it is almost impossible for them to qualify. But I will not be too upset if we live to fight another day and transport all the hype and excitement to Lansdowne for that last game against Romania.

"What we simply cannot afford, however, is to lose here. If that happens, it's going to be very difficult to qualify and that will, of course, be very much in he players' thoughts going into the game. It's a pressure match for everybody, not least Lithuania who will be expected to win at home. But as a manager, I accept that it's a health hazard which goes with the job."

Denis Irwin, a player who would readily find his way into most national teams, provides an acceptable alternative to Kenna in the back four. Replacing Townsend's physical power in midfield and disguising an on going problem on the left wing, may, however, prove a lot more challenging for the manager.

In view of the importance which attaches to survival, his top priority will be to secure the paths to Shay Given's goal. And that invests his choice of a player to operate directly in front of the two centre backs, with unusual importance.

Roy Keane hasn't always looked adequate in this anchor role, demanding vigilance and discipline.

Neither are Jason McAteer or Alan McLoughlin suited to the job and that serves to focus the spotlight on the adaptable Stephen Staunton, a man who started his Ireland career at left back, then moved to left sided midfield and, on occasions, improvised successfully in a central position.

In each instance, his appearance there, was down to Townsend's absence and the tenor of McCarthy's message yesterday suggested that he may now be prepared to go once more with the risk.

"I've always regard Steve as a midfielder and after watching him play in the holding role in midfield in Wales earlier this year, I've no doubt that he can do another big job if asked. It means changing things around a little but that wouldn't be a huge problem."

Terry Phelan, a player who has struggled with Everton this season and who has rarely looked comfortable when asked to undertake a midfield role in the past, is still the most likely beneficiary if the decision is taken to go with a fifth midfielder in preference to a second specialised forward.

Although the Lithuanians encountered recurring problems in restricting Tony Casarino in last month's scoreless draw in Dublin, the more probable front line selection if McCarthy decides to go 45-1 is David Connolly.

Gary Kelly and Irwin are favourites to flank Ken Cunningham and Ian Harte in central defence with Jason McAteer and Alan McLoughlin likely to join Keane, Staunton and Phelan in midfield. In the unlikely event of McCarthy starting with two front line players, Cascarino will get a summons to action.

Having failed to capitalise on any one of four outstanding chances in the first game at Lansdowne three weeks ago, it's difficult to presage anything other than another difficult evening against a team which is slowly plotting a way to respectability in international football.

McCarthy was right when he said yesterday that it was less a case of the Lithuanian defence shutting his attack out of the game as the failure of players like Ray Houghton to convert some exceptional opportunities, which accounted for the loss of two precious points.

That is largely true and yet it ought not disguise the capacity of players like Andrejus Teresknas and Tomas Zlukas to absorb intense pressure, a point illustrated time and again when Ireland were on a flood tide of self belief in the Dublin game.

Benjaminias Zelkevisius, the Lithuanian coach, was just as reluctant as his opposite number to discuss his approach to the game but at one point, he stressed the need for his team to be patient and the dangers inherent in chasing the game from the kick off.

When the Irish trained in the Zalgiris Stadium yesterday morning, the grass was exceptionally long and Alan McLoughlin reported with some alarm, that the penalty spot, at a foot left of centre, was out of sync with the goal posts.