Gerry Thornley: To win the Rugby World Cup, Ireland must overcome history and a harsh draw

Back in November 2017, when World Rugby was convening in a London hotel to decide which of the three bids would be successful in hosting the 2023 Rugby World Cup, well, the world was a different place.

As ever, there was particular annoyance and disappointment among the unsuccessful bids, namely from South Africa and Ireland.

Six years’ work by both governments either side of the Border, and with the GAA supporting the IRFU’s bid, and plenty of giddy optimism, yielded only a paltry eight votes and with that a first-round exit before the French bid was chosen ahead of South Africa’s.

The Irish bid ultimately fell short due to a lack of what the then IRFU chief executive Philip Browne called “shiny new stadiums” in coming third in the recommendation report, but they were also outdone by the financial muscle and political lobbying of the French bid.

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That decision has since been cast under a cloud given the convictions against several of those who contributed to the French bid, but ultimately it’s hard not to believe that, for whatever reasons, World Rugby chose correctly and that Ireland, in truth, dodged a bullet given the Covid pandemic which hit the world in 2020.

It would have been financially and politically well-nigh impossible for the two governments to fund the promised upgrading in stadia and infrastructure during the lockdowns. Ireland would assuredly have had to rescind its pledge to host the tournament had their bid been chosen. Instead, France’s ‘shiny new stadiums’ were readymade.

In any event, this will be the third World Cup to be held in France, but the first to be hosted entirely in the country. In 1991, France was a co-host with the four home Unions and while the country hosted most of the 2007 tournament, culminating in the semi-finals and final, four matches were held in Cardiff and two in Edinburgh.

It will also be a week longer than any previous World Cup so as to ensure a minimum of five days between matches for all participating teams.

Here in Ireland, the tournament fills a post-summer void and all 48 matches will be televised live and free-to-air on RTÉ and Virgin Media Television. The opening game on Friday September 8th between France and New Zealand will be on RTÉ2, while both channels will televise the final on Saturday October 28th.

Ireland’s first pool game on Saturday September 9th against Romania in Bordeaux (kick-off 3.30pm local time/2.30pm Irish), will be shown on Virgin Media One, and thereafter the remainder of Ireland’s pool games kick-off at 9pm local time/8pm Irish.

On Saturday, September 16th, Ireland’s second match against Tonga in Nantes will air on RTÉ2, as will South Africa v Ireland in Paris on Saturday, September 23rd. Ireland’s pool finale against Scotland will be televised on Virgin Media One on Saturday, October 7th.

Television coverage of the quarter-finals and semi-finals have still to be determined.

As in 2007, the pressure will be on France to deliver on home soil. They are the greatest rugby nation never to win a World Cup thus far, despite reaching three finals, and that opening match will tell us much about their ability to cope with the huge sense of anticipation evident in the home support.

They have been transformed by the appointment of Fabien Galthie and their most professional coaching set-up of the professional era, with a new-found emphasis on defence under the guidance of Shaun Edwards.

They have become the game’s dominant force in Under-20 World Championships, winning the last three in succession. They have the best club league in the world, with full stadia at all Top 14 grounds commonplace, but in this World Cup cycle they have also reduced the number of overseas’ players.

Les Bleus ended a decade of underachievement in the Six Nations by winning their first Grand Slam in a decade last year. They have a new generation of brilliant players led by the incomparable Antoine Dupont.

But they have lost their match-winning outhalf Romain Ntamack, a 24-year-old in the vanguard of their revolution and long-time friend and half-back partner of Dupont, through injury. It’s a poorer tournament without him and a host of others who have missed out through injury.

Throughout the last four years, Galthie and co have made it very clear – not least to their likely saviour Mathieu Jalibert – that they believed in Ntamack.

It is possible that they will turn to another of the creative Toulouse core, Thomas Ramos, as Dupont’s half-back partner rather than at fullback, where his brilliance has finally converted the head coach into a believer.

Losing Ntamack was a cruel blow to the player above all, but also to France and must have sent a tremor through their ranks. It has echoes of Dan Carter missing out on the 2011 World Cup in New Zealand.

After losing both of the anointed heirs at ‘10′, Colin Slade and Aaron Cruden, the All Blacks eventually staggered over the line with the unwanted Stephen Donald landing the decisive kick in the final after being called up from a fishing trip to face a French side they had thrashed in the pool stages.

All of which proves you never can tell how a World Cup might unfold but, such was the pressure on them to end a 24-year wait for the William Webb Ellis trophy, the All Blacks all but choked in the final.

The opening match may also be a pointer towards refereeing priorities. Each World Cup seems to reveal a new trend and, judging by the warm-up games, officials are picking up on any transgression by the attacking side at close-range lineouts.

In the game’s biggest showpiece every four years, World Rugby will also want the tournament to reward high tempo, recycling, ball-in-hand, attacking rugby.

Speaking of which, the All Blacks had appeared to be timing their run nicely. They retained their Rugby Championship title thanks mainly to a high-tempo first half-hour at home to the Springboks, although the latter asserted their power game thereafter.

Come the final weekend of warm-up games, the world champions produced the biggest statement win of this World Cup cycle. The Springboks’ maul and scrum obliterated the All Blacks pack and Canan Moodie’s first Test in his formative position at outside centre added to their X-factor.

With Jesse Kriel also playing the best rugby of his career, suddenly Jacques Nienaber has choices which make light of Lukhanyo Am’s injury.

Siya Kolisi’s timely return is a huge boost and Handre Pollard may yet feature. In his absence, the more creative and quicker Mannie Libbok makes the Boks look both less reliable but also way more potent.

In inflicting the heaviest ever Test defeat on New Zealand, the Boks also left their biggest rivals with serious psychological and physical wounds.

True, that could make them a dangerous beast in that intriguing World Cup opening Friday night against France. With Italy, Uruguay and Namibia also in Pool A, it looks like a free hit, particularly so for the All Blacks.

Ireland, should they win Pool B, would probably face the losers from that game. Qualify as runners-up, and they’d likely face the winners, and there’s been a pub debate brewing in Ireland for some time, namely whether it would be preferable to face either France or New Zealand in the quarter-finals.

Yet, due to the lopsided draw, three more of the world’s top five sides are in the same half in Pool B, namely Ireland, South Africa and Scotland. In recovering from 27-10 behind against France in Saint-Etienne to draw level before unluckily losing 30-27, the Finn Russell-inspired Scots will play a brand of rugby that will trouble both the Springboks and Ireland.

In the weaker half of the draw are three struggling countries who changed coaching tickets less than a year out from the tournament, namely England, Australia and Wales. Whichever two sides emerge from this half of the draw will suddenly be among the best two teams in the world, and it will be a surprise if any of them are good enough to then win both a semi-final and final.

Steve Borthwick’s side have looked abject all year, their awful warm-up programme culminating in that eminently predictable and historic home defeat by Fiji. They must face Michael Cheika’s improving Argentina in their pivotal opening game without two totems in Owen Farrell and Billy Vunipola.

If ever a World Cup looked primed for a major upset or two and a change from the customary established Tier One sides in the knock-out stages, it could well be this one. This is all the truer given that ala Tonga, both Samoa and Fiji, who look particularly dangerous with their immense physicality and four Olympic 7s gold medalists among their game breakers, have been strengthened by the changes to World Rugby’s eligibility laws.

The betting, with six countries until recently 10/1 or under for the first time in World Cup history, demonstrates that this is the most open World Cup ever.

Ultimately though, the likelihood remains that the winners will still come from France, New Zealand, Ireland or South Africa, even if two of those will not reach the semi-finals.

This is the best Irish side ever to reach a World Cup, but the weight of history is against them as well as the draw, even if their schedule is probably ideal. The previous best was probably the class of 2015, before they lost arguably their five most influential players for the quarter-finals.

Similarly this time around, if they can escape the pool of sharks, the big question remains whether the bulk of their key personnel – ie Johnny Sexton, the back three, Jamison Gibson-Park, Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, James Ryan, Caelan Doris – can stay healthy through weekly knock-out matches.

If so, then more than ever before, Ireland can win the World Cup.