The time has come to look for help outside

I WAS listening to Malcolm Rifkind on the BBC's Today programme earlier this week

I WAS listening to Malcolm Rifkind on the BBC's Today programme earlier this week. The British Foreign Secretary, in a torrent of Scots eloquence, was pleading for the main participants to summon the courage and generosity of vision necessary to save the peace process.

Everybody knew, he said, that at the end of the day there would have to be a negotiated settlement. The danger was that, without anybody really wanting it, the present crisis would spiral out of control and that another generation would be lost to violence.

I wondered idly if he had ever made the arguments to his cabinet colleagues in relation to Northern Ireland. How easy it is to see quite clearly the way that other people should behave in a situation where we are not directly involved. How difficult and complicated - and unique - these problems of territory and conflicting rights become when they occur in our own back yard.

Mr Rifkind was, of course, talking about the meeting in Washington between the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat, summoned by President Clinton after violent clashes on the West Bank.

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Mr Clinton at least has shown the necessary vision, taking time out from his election campaign to try and prevent a slide towards war in the Middle East. The consensus from a wide variety of commentators is that he is right to do so, but is probably wasting his time.

The realities of his own political situation - the importance of the US Jewish vote - mean he is unable to put the kind of pressure on Mr Netanyahu that would be required to restore confidence in the peace process. Instead, if he fails, Bob Dole is poised to attack another botched foreign policy initiative.

And yet, there will be many, even within Israel itself, who will be grateful that the President has reaffirmed the commitment of the US to the search for a just peace in the Middle East.

Leah Rabin, widow of the assassinated Israeli prime minister, has spoken with great dignity for these people, thanking Mr Clinton for the risks he has taken and expressing the belief that, even if there is no immediate political success from the Washington summit, it will "help to quieten things down in Israel".

In these bleak days for Northern Ireland, it is salutary to be reminded of how much Mr Clinton has done for the cause of peace in this country and to speculate on the contribution which the US might still be able to make.

At the moment, the British and Irish governments are paralysed in their efforts to move the political situation forward. The Taoiseach and John Major seem to agree there is a duty to talk up their hopes for progress but give an impression of whistling a duet in the dark.

The reality is that Mr Bruton cannot deliver an IRA ceasefire. Equally, John Major cannot force the unionists to accept the compromise on decommissioning, which is a prerequisite if Sinn Fein is to be brought into the talks.

It is possible to criticise the way these issues have been handled by both governments and to regret the consequences. But it is difficult to see how the talks at Stormont can stagger on very much longer. Like John Major, David Trimble is facing into an election and will take no risks that leave him or his party vulnerable to criticism from the Rev Ian Paisley or Robert McCartney.

The SDLP may continue to attend the talks, arguing that some form of politics is better than none, but it will become even harder for it to convince its supporters that these negotiations are going anywhere.

As Dick Grogan noted in this newspaper yesterday, there is a strong sense that neither side wants to see a return to violence. But peace is unravelling in an extremely dangerous way at both ends.

The absence of an IRA ceasefire, the unpredictability of fringe republican groups, the statement by loyalist prisoners withdrawing support from the peace process these are only the most obvious danger signals, Almost as worrying is the mood of growing physical apprehension on the ground. Reports of punishment beatings, intimidation, blockades, boycotts, all contribute to a souring of the atmosphere which makes the possibility of a return to violence more likely.

I remember vividly, probably because it struck such an immediate chord, how Seamus Mallon described the extraordinary joy of not having to switch on the early morning news bulletin in case some terrible incident had occurred overnight. Now we are almost back to those pre ceasefire fears.

It seems a long time since thousands of people from both communities poured on to the streets of Belfast and Derry during Mr Clinton's visit to demonstrate their joy in the peace and their hopes that it would last.

What is needed most of all now is some initiative to inject a new sense of hope that political progress is possible. Given that both governments seem powerless to achieve this, it may well be that the time has come to look for outside help The obvious, indeed the only candidate, is the US.

WE already have reason to be grateful for the enormous contribution individual Americans, by no means all of them with Irish connections, have made towards bringing us close to a lasting peace. It would be foolish even to try to record all their names here but George Mitchell, in particular, has shown a steady and generous commitment to the task of bringing about a lasting settlement.

Still, it is difficult to see how even this skilled and patient negotiator can proceed from here. This month he is due to return to the US to help Mr Clinton prepare for the TV debates which are an important part of the presidential campaign. There have been persistent leaks to the effect that he is likely to be offered an important job if Mr Clinton is re-elected. If, by some chance, this does not happen, Mr Mitchell may well be tempted by other job offers.

He has been approached to take the post of baseball commissioner. The sport has been badly damaged by strikes, and Mr Mitchell, an avid fan, might well find the task of bringing peace to that damaged sport rather more rewarding than dealing with the dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone.

People have grown hopeless looking at those television pictures of querulous politicians entering and leaving Castle Buildings at Stormont. Something is needed to inspire a new confidence in the possibilities of peace and the political process. It is just possible that bringing Northern Ireland's political leaders to some spot like Dayton, Ohio, might open up hearts and minds, or at least reduce the problems of Northern Ireland to a more manageable scale.

Obviously nothing can be done until after the presidential election, but that is only a few weeks away. As this week's Middle East summit in Washington has shown, Mr Clinton is still prepared to take serious risks for peace. That initiative was taken only after 79 people had died in renewed violence. Let us hope that if we call on him for help it will not be in similar circumstances.