The coincidence of a particularly blatant recurrence of Provisional IRA violence with the run-up to local and European elections in our State has enabled Sinn Féin to ascribe solely to electoral considerations the negative reactions of democratic politicians to this recent kidnapping - a line that its supporters are, no doubt, happy to swallow.
But the reality is that the great majority of the voters from whom our constitutional parties derive their support are fed up with the lack of progress towards ending IRA violence, and are becoming increasingly dissatisfied with what they see as pussy-footing by our political leaders on this issue.
Earlier popular tolerance of the Sinn Féin/IRA leadership's need for time to bring their activists with them along the path towards democracy has gradually been eroded by the intransigence of the IRA. People are, indeed, starting to wonder whether perhaps the leadership of Sinn Féin/IRA believes it can now secure a significant foothold in our Parliament without actually abandoning paramilitarism.
The growth of electoral support for Sinn Féin amongst a minority in this State deserves more study than it has hitherto received. Recent polls have suggested that since May of last year the proportion of voters in this State who are contemplating voting for Sinn Féin candidates at the next general election has risen from 6.5 per cent to 9 per cent - and when account is taken of the 22 per cent of the electorate who either do not intend to vote or are unwilling to state their intentions to pollsters, this Sinn Féin 9 per cent support figure translates into 11.5 per cent of those disclosing their voting intentions.
Because the total number of Sinn Féin voters recorded in any single poll of 1,000 voters is quite small - between 70 and 90 of those sampled - it is statistically necessary to cumulate the figures for a number of successive polls in order to get reasonably reliable data in respect of sub-groups of voters.
Looking back at the cumulative data from the polls of the last 18 months, it is clear that, to a far greater extent than in the case of most other political parties, Sinn Féin's support is heavily skewed in terms of gender, age, marital status, and socio-economic group - and is also unevenly spread geographically.
Thus twice as many men as women are willing to vote for Sinn Féin candidates, reflecting women's stronger rejection of violence. A similar dichotomy exists between single and married voters - for single people are almost twice as willing to support Sinn Féin as those who are married.
Moreover, more than twice as many working-class as middle-class voters are Sinn Féin supporters, and the party's support is now much greater in urban than in rural areas.
While one should not read too much into the data from the two most recent polls in September 2003 and February last, the additional support recorded there seems to have come principally from male urban workers in Leinster, including Dublin. This could reflect a shift away from republicanism as the main motivating factor in Sinn Féin support, towards support based rather upon social issues.
There are also signs that this new support may be concentrated in the 25-34 age group, rather than among younger voters, who, up to last year, were the most inclined to support the party.
Geographically, Sinn Féin's support has in the past been concentrated in certain parts of the country - in areas near to the Border and in North Kerry, but also in predominantly working-class constituencies in Dublin. where many of its recent gains in support may have been concentrated.
In the 2002 general election, Sinn Féin secured just under one-sixth of the vote in areas near the Border and also in some working-class areas of Dublin, while in North Kerry Martin Ferris won 22 per cent. But in the three-quarters of the remainder of the country where it put forward candidates, it secured only 5 per cent of the votes - and one can assume that in the eight constituencies which it chose not to contest on that occasion, its support was even lower.
This particular skewed voting pattern suggests that in a general election Sinn Féin's share of seats would be a good deal lower than its share of votes. Even allowing for the recent apparent two-thirds rise in support for the party, there may be only 10 or 11 constituencies where its increased share of the vote would now give it a good chance of a seat - although there are also a couple of others where it might have an outside possibility of a second seat.
In other words, because of the skewed geographical character of its support, the 11.5 per cent of the vote accorded to Sinn Féin by the most recent poll would be unlikely to give it more than 6 per cent to 8 per cent of Dáil seats.
And there would be nothing very surprising about this, for a similar phenomenon - i.e. a much lower proportion of seats than votes - marked the emergence of both Clann na Poblachta in 1948 and the Progressive Democrats in 1987.
If by the time the next general election is held the IRA has not abandoned all violence and decommissioned its arms, Sinn Féin will be ineligible to participate in a coalition government here, and no Taoiseach forming such a government will wish even to be dependent on its outside support.
That could make government formation difficult. For, although some of the 13 Independent deputies in this Dáil - who currently lack the kind of power to influence a minority government that some of them were able to exercise between 1997 and 2002 - may lose their seats at the next election, nevertheless, given the increased support for Sinn Féin, it would be optimistic for the five government-oriented parties to expect to hold more seats between them in the next Dáil than they do in this one, namely 147 out of 166.
So the next government, whatever its composition, could well find itself as dependent upon the support of some Independents as was the last one.
One final point. Poll data on party leadership have consistently been misinterpreted by the media. These poll leadership figures have nothing whatever to do with personal popularity. The leadership question asked in these surveys of opinion relates to how each party head "is doing his/her job as leader" of the party.
And given Sinn Féin's increased electoral support, it would be difficult not to give Gerry Adams a high mark in this respect, no matter how much one may disbelieve his claim to have had nothing to do with the IRA, or otherwise reject his politics.