One year on from its victory in the federal elections the German government is in a distinctly uncomfortable position. After a succession of defeats in Lander elections both the Social Democrats and the Greens are in internal disarray. The Chancellor, Mr Schroder, has seen his popularity slump and his political authority and competence widely attacked. If he fails to assert his leadership over coming months the future of his coalition with the Greens looks bleak indeed, as it faces crucial elections in two of the main Lander next spring and summer.
Most of the government's difficulties have been of its own making. There was a failure to plan out its most radical programmes effectively. Proposals to phase out nuclear power and ban the recycling of nuclear waste were central elements of the Greens' programme but were heavily compromised by hamfisted plans to implement them too rapidly. They remain on the agenda but will take much longer to attract public support; in the meantime Green voters have abandoned the party, disillusioned with its record. Within its ranks there is open speculation that it may be necessary to leave government if the party is to survive.
Extending dual citizenship to Germany's seven million immigrants was another cherished Green objective - and a genuinely progressive one for all Europeans. It, too, was sacrificed to ill-preparedness over the first months in office, as Mr Schroder brokered an opportunist compromise. That has been his role, all the more so after the finance minister, Mr Oskar Lafontaine, resigned last March in fundamental disagreement over fiscal and economic policy. While this delighted his business and media critics, it upset the coalition's political balance in ways that are only now becoming fully apparent.
But Mr Schroder has some important factors going for him. Economic recovery should reduce the high German unemployment figures in the new year. By that time the austerity programme is likely to have gone through the upper house of the federal parliament, boosting business and international confidence and encouraging investment. There is an opportunity to repair damage to party structures and inter-party relations in coming months, enabling a more convincing and united front to be put before the electors of North Rhine-Westphalia next May.
Most German governments sink or swim with the economy; this is good news for Mr Schroder, given the favourable business cycle currently in play. But his difficulties have put paid to extravagant expectations of a realignment of Germany and Britain, based on a convergence of policy between Mr Schroder and Mr Tony Blair. At present the rather different approach to revising and developing social democracy taken by the French Prime Minister, Mr Jospin, looks the most impressive of the three.