RUSSIAN ELECTIONS

The possible return to communist rule in Russia after the presidential election on June 16th has exercised the minds of western…

The possible return to communist rule in Russia after the presidential election on June 16th has exercised the minds of western leaders and has led some of them, Chancellor Kohl in particular, to take the unusual step of coming out in support of a candidate in an election in a foreign state. Mr Kohl has explicitly favoured Mr Yeltsin in statements made in Russia and elsewhere while President Clinton has limited himself to utterances of support for "those political forces which pursue reform." Western businesses with investments in a country which, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, appeared to offer unprecedented opportunities, are distinctly edgy at the prospect of a victory for Mr Zyuganov.

The spectre of communism appears to be stalking the largest country in Europe once again and unlike the return to power of the "former communists" in most of the other countries of eastern and central Europe with their social democratic programmes, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation is perceived as much closer to the old style communism of the Cold War. There are signs that this may not be precisely the case; indeed that the brand of communism now being espoused in Russia is even more dangerous than its predecessor. Significantly, in his election manifesto, Mr Zyuganov mentions the words "communism" only once while the term "fatherland" is used on no fewer than 19 occasions.

Mr Zyuganov's past is one of support for great Russian nationalism; he sits. on the editorial board of Zavtra an openly anti semitic newspaper and he is surrounded by an entourage which, though it includes a small number of social reformers, is dominated by nationalists and old Kremlin hardliners. But neither is Mr Yeltsin without his faults. His merciless pursuit of power has seen him echoing a considerable proportion of the communists' more populist policies.

His own entourage including as it does a number of shadowy figures from the former KGB, his value system which places personal loyalty before public performance and the obeisance he demands from the state controlled broadcasters do not recommend him as the democratic leader that Russia so sorely needs. Opinion polls indicate that the Russian people are faced with a choice they will be forced to make rather than the one they would prefer. Many, perhaps most, of those who say they will support Mr Yeltsin will do so not because they wholeheartedly support him but because they see him as the only alternative to keeping Mr Zyuganov out of power.

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Democratic opponents of Mr Yeltsin were the first to be brushed aside in Mr Yeltsin's all out war against opponents, the main weapon in which has been an apotheosis of the reigning president on state controlled television to the virtual exclusion of his opponents of all hues. Mr Yeltsin's one policy which gives hope to western leaders is his continued support for market reforms. However, his democratic credentials are such that the Russian people's search for personal freedoms is likely to continue for some time after a new president is elected.