The main Opposition parties - Fine Gael and Labour - have reshaped their frontline teams to tackle the Government. Stephen Collinsassesses them.
Enda Kenny has given a clear signal of serious intent in the early stages of the 30th Dáil by making extensive changes to his front bench. By dropping eight of his old team to make way for new faces and returning veterans who had lost their seats in the 2002 deluge he has demonstrated a willingness to take risks in the cause of making a real fight of the next election.
The fact that Kenny did not take the easy option of expanding his front bench to accommodate new faces alongside those who served him loyally in the last Dáil showed that he really does intend to make a fight of it. By showing that he was willing to make the hard choice of dropping eight experienced TDs who could potentially make trouble for him in the future, the Fine Gael leader earned the right to be taken seriously when he says that his ambition is to replace Fianna Fáil as the biggest party at the next election.
With 20 TDs the Labour leader, Eamon Gilmore, didn't have to agonise about dropping people but neither did he have the same number of choices at his disposal. He gave prominent positions to his three new TDs in an effort to freshen up his party's image and the fact that he now has two former leaders, Pat Rabbitte and Ruairi Quinn, at his disposal also gives him a depth of experience which should benefit the party.
At his press conference to announce his new front bench Kenny accepted that the dynamic of Opposition politics in the new Dáil will be very different from the last one. He paid tribute to Rabbitte and Labour for fully honouring the Mullingar accord but accepted that both parties will fight the next election as separate entities with any negotiations on the formation of government taking place after the election result.
Kenny was adamant that Fine Gael's target was to become the biggest party in the Dáil at the next election. If that ambition could be achieved the party would almost certainly be in government as all parties, except Fianna Fáil, would be available as potential coalition partners.
Of course getting to that position is very much a long shot as it is something that Fine Gael has never achieved since the party was founded in 1933. It came closest in November, 1982, when it cut the Fianna Fáil lead to just five seats and five percentage points. If it could cut the lead to single figures again the party might well be able to get into government without becoming the largest party.
The gain of 20 seats in last May's election enables Kenny to suggest that he is not engaging in fantasy when he talks about becoming the largest party as a further gain of anything approaching that figure next time out would put the party very close to Fianna Fáil. The problem is that the Fine Gael recovery this year, remarkable and all as it was, represented a recovery of all the ground lost in 2002. Making the next great leap forward will require it to conquer new territory and that will be much more difficult.
The fact that the party will fight the next election on its own rather than in tandem with Labour could turn out to be a real advantage. It leaves Fine Gael in the position of being able to define what it stands for without having to look over its shoulder at the sensitivities of another party. Whether it can define itself in a way that is capable of attracting more than 30 per cent of the electorate is the big question.
There was no great surprise in the return to the front bench of three TDs who lost their seats in 2002. Brian Hayes, Charlie Flanagan and Alan Shatter are formidable politicians who can punch at the top level and their presence should give real weight to the Opposition. There was some surprise that Dr James Reilly was promoted directly to the health portfolio, given his lack of political experience. The promotion of his fellow doctor, Leo Varadkar, was less of a surprise as he has demonstrated formidable electoral skills and has come through the Fine Gael organisation.
The fact that Lucinda Creighton, another new TD who came through the Young Fine Gael stable, did not make it to the front bench caused some puzzlement as she is widely regarded as a potential future star. That there are only two women out of the 17 frontbenchers in the Dáil is something that could become a negative for Kenny in the years ahead. If the ambition of winning more seats than Fianna Fáil is to be taken seriously a lot of women will have to be persuaded to vote for the party and appointing just two to the front bench is hardly the best way of going about it.
While there was considerable sympathy for the eight TDs demoted from the front bench there was a recognition that changes had to be made. There was particular sympathy for Jim O'Keeffe, the former justice spokesman, who was not only hardworking and competent but who brought a levelheadedness to the consideration of major issues.
On the Labour side the promotion of newly-elected TDs Seán Sherlock, Ciaran Lynch and Joanna Tuffy was no surprise. The appointment of Rabbitte as justice spokesman puts the former leader in a key portfolio where he will continue to make an impact. There was an expectation that he might take a low-profile position in the immediate aftermath of stepping down but Gilmore is wise to harness his talents immediately in a prominent position.
With the Taoiseach destined to spend the next few months explaining his complex personal finances to the Mahon tribunal the Opposition have a chance to put the Government under pressure from the very start. That is the only chance they have of removing Fianna Fáil from office when the next election dawns.