Ulster Unionists try to alert dissidents to paradox

Mr SΘamus Mallon, of the SDLP, is bowing out as Northern Ireland's Deputy First Minister

Mr SΘamus Mallon, of the SDLP, is bowing out as Northern Ireland's Deputy First Minister. A theatre buff, he last night speculated, based on nothing more than his gut feeling, that today a deus ex machina - a dramatic version of the cavalry - would come to the rescue of both Mr David Trimble and the Belfast Agreement.

At the time of writing, it will certainly need a powerful providential interposition to ensure that Mr Trimble will win the necessary votes in the Assembly.

Sometime around noon today we should know whether Mr Mallon's instinct is still serving him well.

As written here on Monday, this drama is changing day by day. On Wednesday evening the powerbrokers in this saga, Ms Pauline Armitage and Mr Peter Weir, spoke of having an "interesting, positive, productive meeting" with Gen John de Chastelain when they met him to discuss the recent IRA decommissioning initiative. This, not surprisingly, raised hopes in the Trimble camp.

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Ms Armitage said we would only know today how she would vote.

But on the BBC yesterday she rather pre-empted herself by saying that she would vote against Mr Trimble.

The other dissident Ulster Unionist MLA, Mr Peter Weir, is keeping mum until voting time, but reading his article in The Irish Times today it is obvious that his mindset is pretty negative.

It's all a far cry from the hope generated by the IRA's start to decommissioning, announced last week.

It must be something in the Northern Ireland or, more particularly, the unionist psyche. As soon as one crisis is resolved and the political way ahead appears clear, another crisis sneaks up on the blind side.

For years the unionist gripe was about the South's territorial claim to the North in Articles 2 and 3 of the Constitution.

Not only did the Belfast Agreement get rid of that claim but it established the principle of consent whereby only a majority of the people here could end the link with Britain.

Since the agreement, the main unionist demand has been IRA decommissioning. Anti-agreement unionists have insisted that it would never even begin - but begin it did, with assistance from Dublin, London, Washington, Colombia, September 11th and the strategies and manoeuvrings of Mr Trimble.

Mr Weir, in his article in this newspaper today, argues with some cogency that unionists are right to be sceptical about the IRA gesture on arms.

But nationalists and Yes unionists alike respond with equal force that the actions of No unionism indicate that they have no strategy; and that what they are truly about is being viscerally opposed to Mr Trimble and to sharing power with nationalists.

Mr Weir says that what Gen de Chastelain disclosed about the IRA action "gives vagueness a bad name".

His opponents in the Ulster Unionist Party in turn complain that his and Ms Armitage's reaction to Mr Trimble's achievement in helping to force the IRA to move "gives ingratitude a bad name".

"It will be a monumental PR blunder if we lose this vote, both nationally and internationally. We said we wanted a start to decommissioning. We got a start to decommissioning. The world will say 'Unionism can never be satisfied', because what else can it say?" said a despairing senior Ulster Unionist source.

Ms Jane Morrice, of the Women's Coalition, is planning to redesignate as a unionist to help Mr Trimble.

But if Ms Armitage and Mr Weir vote against Mr Trimble, then even that controversial assistance will be of no value to the UUP leader.

Ulster Unionist MLA Mr Danny Kennedy, further muddying the waters, said that he would have to seriously consider how he would vote today if Mr Trimble accepted the aid of the Women's Coalition.

"It might just be better to go to the country", he said.

But he warned that Ms Armitage and Mr Weir should be mindful of an obvious paradox: "If an election is called as a result of Peter Weir and Pauline Armitage voting against David Trimble today, there is every possibility that Sinn FΘin will return with a stronger mandate and holding the position of Deputy First Minister. How does that stop Sinn FΘin?"

Such are the arguments that the UUP whips and Trimble supporters were continuing to put to Mr Weir and Ms Armitage last night and early today.

Be sure, too, that similar points were being put to others in the No unionist camp who might just be persuaded to deliver SΘamus Mallon's deus ex machina by going AWOL from today's vote.

Last night you wouldn't bet on such an eventuality.