WHEN the 28th Dail meets on June 26th. Bertie Ahern will almost certainly be elected Taoiseach. But a great deal of negotiation will take place in the intervening weeks as a programme for government is discussed between Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats and the demands of Independents are taken into account. The public will then be presented with a strange hybrid: a minority coalition government.
The Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrat coalition's bid for power ground to a halt a few seats short of an overall Dail majority, and three Independent TDs will be required to breathe life into the new government.
It should not be difficult to find an experienced Independent to accept the position of Ceann Comhairle, because the position carries a ministerial salary, a State car and extensive foreign travel, along with automatic entry into the next Dail. The name of Tony Gregory, from Mr Ahern's own constituency, has already been mentioned in that regard.
After that appointment, things become more difficult. An Independent Fianna Fail candidate, Jackie Healy Rae, who was elected in Kerry South after failing to secure a party nomination, will be approached. And it should not be beyond the capacity of Mr Ahern's silver tongue to sweet talk him back to the fold.
A charm offensive will be employed to lure Mildred Fox, who also hails from Independent Fianna Fail, and exploratory dialogue will be opened with Thomas Gildea, who was elected as a television deflector candidate in Donegal South West.
THE required Dail arithmetic would then fall into place without requiring the formal support of Harry Blaney of Donegal North East, whose policy on Northern Ireland is "Brits Out" or that of Caoimhghin O Caolain of Sinn Fein.
It's not the result that Bertie Ahern and Mary Harney set out to achieve six months ago. But it is a considerable political achievement, especially when one considers the high satisfaction rating of the outgoing Government. And Fianna Fail's own success, in terms of vote management and candidate selection, was nothing short of spectacular.
With a marginal increase in its national vote over 1992, Fianna Fail managed to increase its Dail strength by 10 seats. The conversion ratio of votes to seats confounded the other parties as Mr Ahern's electoral machine gained a bonus of seven seats; hoovered up transfers right across the political spectrum; and benefited, in particular, from the Progressive Democrats.
The election has done great damage to the Labour Party, to the Progressive Democrats and to Democratic Left, which have watched the two main conservative parties grow at their expense. The votes shed by the Labour Party were gained in first preference votes by Fine Gael and by Independents, but by the last count the main beneficiaries in terms of seats were Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. The congestion of the political middle ground during the election campaign allowed Fine Gael to emerge as the driving force of the Rainbow Government, with the Labour Party and Democratic Left as appendages, while Fianna Fail first embraced and then emasculated the Progressive Democrats in policy terms.
In the aftermath of the election, a whole lot of ruffled political feathers will have to be smoothed if good relations are to be preserved between the parties on both the government and opposition benches.
John Bruton, buoyed up by a fine performance by Fine Gael, has already set out his political stall as representing the social values the Government parties campaigned on during the election. This political realignment of Fine Gael is certain to cause friction with the Labour Party and with Democratic Left, which have seen their Dail representation levels cut, respectively, from 32 to 17 seats and from six to four seats.
Dick Spring, in particular, will be under tremendous pressure to get out from under the shadow of Fine Gael; to reassert the Labour Party's separate identity and policies; to rebuild party strength and morale; and to prepare for the next election.
The same priorities will force Proinsias De Rossa and Democratic Left to adopt a more assertive left wing approach to issues.
And all three outgoing Government parties will be seeking issues on which to confront and destabilise the new government during its first months in office. In that regard, Mr Ahern's promise of an abortion referendum may become a hostage to fortune; the Dunnes payments tribunal will report within a matter of months; there are opposition undertakings to publish the State's legal advice on hepatitis C; and the Labour Party is huffing and puffing about a connection between Independent Newspapers and Fianna Fail.
But the main issues are expected to be Northern Ireland, taxation, unemployment, the control of State spending, EMU and currency stability and the introduction of a November Budget.
LATER this week, negotiators from Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats will begin work on a programme for government. And, in the aftermath of the party's bruising experience in the election, Ms Harney's representatives will be working hard to make a priority of its policies on tax reform and the control of government spending.
They will also seek maximum representation in government for a party reduced to four seats. And Mr Ahern is expected to be generous in that regard in order to display his commitment to future good relations.
In a speech in Letterkenny before the election, Mr Ahern promised to deal fairly with any group he shared office with in the future. But he insisted there could be no question of ultimatums being set by individuals or by a small party; negotiation and conciliation was the way to proceed, he said.
The Fianna Fail leader will meet the Sinn Fein president, Mr Gerry Adams, during the coming week, to discuss the peace process in Northern Ireland and the possibility of securing a permanent IRA ceasefire. Without a ceasefire, such meetings will end after June 26th.
Sinn Fein had campaigned in the Westminster, Northern Ireland and Dail elections on a peace platform, Mr Ahern said, and the IRA should now deliver on that promise. If a ceasefire was put in place, he would do everything that was humanly possible to bring about a political settlement.
At the same time, Mr Ahern offered to play fair and open and honest" with unionists in order to bring about a resolution to the age old difficulties of Northern Ireland.
Mr Ahern has many things going for him as he prepares to form the next government: a booming economy, extremely buoyant taxation and the likelihood of another IRA ceasefire. A minority coalition government isn't the most suitable vehicle from which to exploit those opportunities. But the Fianna Fail and Progressive Democrat leaders have an opportunity to prove it is compatible personalities, rather than parties, that make coalitions work.