The pro-independence party of Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian has suffered a surprise defeat in weekend legislative elections that could ease tensions with China but paralyse government on the democratic island.
Without a clear mandate in parliament, Chen will find it hard to push through his plan to write a new constitution and thus enshrine his ambitions to transform the status of the island that China claims as a renegade province.
"Taiwan voters have clearly chosen to put the brakes on the pan-green camp," the China Times said in a Sunday editorial, referring to the colour of Chen's Democratic Progressive Party.
"Rather than saying most voters voted for pan-blue, we should say they opted to maintain stability," it said. The opposition Nationalists, or Kuomintang, fought the election under a blue flag and on a manifesto more conciliatory towards Beijing.
The party of Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek that fled the mainland in 1949 and is committed to some form of reunification emerged the biggest winner, taking 79 seats, up from 68 in 2001. Overall, the opposition alliance took 114 of the 225 seats.
The DPP remained the single largest party but gained only two seats for a total of 89. Along with its hardline pro-independence ally, the Taiwan Solidarity Union, they control just 101 seats.
Any form of French-style cohabitation is unlikely because the two have long been bitterly opposed and their leaders are barely on speaking terms. The deadlock is likely to frustrate Chen's political aims and slow the drive to independence.
"China and the United States will be breathing a sigh of temporary relief," said Zhu Feng, head of the international security programme at Peking University.
Chiu Tai-san, a vice chairman of Taiwan's policymaking Mainland Affairs Council and a member of Chen's party, said the DPP needed to review its strategy.
"I think mainland China will see this election result as a sign that there is still a political force in Taiwan that can restrain and balance Chen Shui-bian's China policy," Chiu said.
Analysts in Taiwan agreed that the increasingly strident tone of pro-independence parties towards the end of the election campaign may have scared voters who in March had re-elected Chen as president -- if only by the slimmest of margins.
"Chen Shui-bian should take full responsibility for the DPP loss. He appeared too reckless, he said too much, too quickly," said high school teacher Cheng Mei-chu. "All those things he said during the campaign made me very nervous."