Presidential tracking poll gives Obama valuable lead

POLLWATCH:RESULTS IN individual opinion polls can often mean little, but trends are everything. By that reckoning, Barack Obama is heading for the White House, according to the Rasmussen presidential tracking poll.

Just before the Wall Street investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed, Republican John McCain held a slight lead in the polls.

For the Republican that now seems a very long way away.

Today, Obama attracts 51 per cent support in the Rasmussen tracking poll, and he has now enjoyed a lead, modest or otherwise, every day for the last month. For the past 11 days Senator Obama has been over 51 per cent in the polls.

During those 11 days, McCain has been at 45 per cent or 46 per cent every day and the gap between the candidates has remained between four and six points, the polling organisation said yesterday.

Indeed, 27 days have passed since Obama's support dipped below 50 per cent or above 52 per cent, indicating that it is remarkably stable.

During that same time, McCain's figures stayed at 44-46 per cent.

The daily tracking figures are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters each night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis.

The 3,000 sample has a 2 per cent margin of error.

The figures coming from the tracking polls run by the Gallup polling organisation are remarkably similar: Obama has received 50-52 per cent support for the last five reports with McCain getting 41-43 per cent.

However, the race for the White House is tighter than it looks if voter-turnout patterns are similar to those seen in most presidential elections from 1952 to 2004.

Using this "traditional" definition of likely voters, which notes the voting history of those polled and their interest in the campaign, Obama leads McCain by an estimated seven points, 51 per cent to 44 per cent.

Even here, however, the news for Obama is good, since this is the largest lead he has enjoyed in this category of Gallup's analysis since the organisation began recording figures in this fashion.