CIE corporate management last Monday unveiled its £44 million plan to restructure the company and ensure its survival. It was notifying the unions that it would press ahead with the changes, beginning today with its most commercially vulnerable subsidiary, Bus Eireann.
Four hours later, that strategy was in disarray. Two Bus Eireann drivers, members of the National Bus and Rail Workers' Union, had won a judicial review under the 1986 Transport Act. Under the Act, CIE cannot adversely change the conditions of employment of its workforce without their consent.
The strategist behind the move was the NBRU general secretary, Mr Peter Bunting, although SIPTU is the largest CIE union, the NBRU has traditionally set the pace during disputes - largely because of Mr Bunting's dynamism.
Started as a breakaway from the old Irish Transport and General Workers' Union in the 1960s, the NBRU has only 2,500 member among more than 10,000 in CIE. But it represents most drivers, including train drivers in Iarnrod Eireann.
Many CIE workers see it as the company's most militant and effective union. But other CIE unions see the High Court challenge as a high risk strategy that could backfire.
They say the court could find the company is entitled to introduce the changes. Even if there is a favourable ruling, the net effect may be the liquidation of CIE, on the basis that the law prevents it from becoming a viable commercial concern. Alternatively management might seek amending legislation from the Government.
However, many people see CIE as a social institution rather than another transport company. If comments by Labour and Democratic Left TDs last week are anything to go by, the Minister for Transport, Mr Lowry, may have difficulty persuading Cabinet colleagues to agree to controversial legislation in the run up to an election year.
And, as Mr Bunting repeats the only reason for the High Court action is that "management did not allow negotiations to be an option". He says the unions co operated with four reorganisation plans in Dublin Bus (including the shedding of 1,800 jobs), have helped reduce labour costs in Iarnrod Eireann by £1.5 million and are willing to discuss change in Bus Eireann.
But Bus Eireann is the company where least progress has been made at increasing productivity. It is also the most vulnerable to competition and the most dispensable in terms of CIE corporate strategy.
CIE workers generally fear management will use Bus Eireann as the battle ground on which to beat the unions into compliance with the rest of the rescue plan. The group might have succeeded with its strategy had it not simultaneously unveiled plans for similar drastic action in Dublin Bus and Iarnrod Eireann.
The NBRU decision to seek a High Court review may provide a breathing space for both sides to reconsider their positions.
The problem in all the CIE companies is that workers have traditionally accepted low pay because of extensive opportunities for overtime and shift premiums. The unions argue that changes involving serious erosion of take home pay are not on.
The company argues that it cannot continue paying for flexibility and long hours as "extras" on top of basic pay.
There are people on both sides in CIE who feel strongly that it should not take a series of potentially devastating strikes to reach a compromise.