In the immediate years after its foundation in 1970, the Alliance Party was regarded as having a radical edge in Northern politics. It attracted a high proportion of young, well-educated people fed up with what they saw as the sectarianism of nationalist and traditional unionist parties.
Alliance served on the Sunningdale power-sharing Executive with the Ulster Unionists and the SDLP. In its heyday, at the 1974 district council elections, Alliance attracted 14.4 per cent support. By the 1990s, it was in decline, but there were expectations that its support would rise with the Belfast Agreement.
Surely in this new era, traditional divisions would start to break down, providing fertile ground for Alliance? The opposite has proved to be the case. The slide in the party's fortunes increased. In June, it secured 5 per cent of the vote in the council elections and just 3.6 per cent support in 13 of the 18 Westminster constituencies it contested.
The party's leader, Mr Sean Neeson, resigned last month, saying it was time for a "fresh face". Alliance's 150-strong party council will meet tomorrow to elect a new leader. It's a straight contest between its deputy leader, Ms Eileen Bell, and a leading party strategist, Mr David Ford.
But whoever wins will face an uphill battle to stop the rot. There are several reasons for the party's decline. The decision in 1998 of the then leader, Lord Alderdice, to step down to become the Assembly's presiding officer created considerable bad feeling in the party. Many members felt that he abandoned Alliance in its hour of need.
Although extremely likeable and well-meaning, his successor, Mr Neeson, lacked Lord Alderdice's gravitas and oratorical skill. He never managed to take control of the party and suffered the humiliation of not even being picked as his local constituency's Westminster candidate.
Alliance also suffered with the arrival of both the Women's Coalition and the Progressive Unionist Party. Both parties had an articulate leadership and appeared more exciting to sections of the electorate.
But the greatest problem for Alliance was that the middle ground itself dwindled with the peace process. The electorate became more extreme, with huge swings of support to both the DUP and Sinn FΘin. In response, many natural Alliance voters decided to support pro-agreement Ulster Unionist candidates or the SDLP.
In some ways, the Belfast Agreement itself institutionalised sectarianism. Parties in the Assembly were forced to designate as "unionist", "nationalist", or "other". Alliance was increasingly seen as irrelevant.
The party's general secretary, Mr Stephen Farry, noted in a recent edition of Fortnight magazine that although the Northern conflict had moderated substantially, the political and cultural divisions were more starkly defined than ever.
"We may have fragile ceasefires and an Assembly, but sectarianism, communal segregation and paramilitarism are on the increase. It is almost as if peace has come at the price of reconciliation," he wrote.
The two leadership candidates represent very different strands of the party. Ms Bell is regarded as being on the party's "community activist" wing.
"Eileen takes a passionate, grassroots approach to politics. She was involved in the Peace People in the 1970s and has been a member of nearly every leading voluntary group around," says a supporter.
"She believes the party needs to rediscover its roots if it is to prevent its terminal decline."
Mr Ford has a lower public profile, but is an important behind- the-scenes strategist. He is a member of what one observer calls "Alliance's GHQ wing".
"He is a brilliant back-room boy. If elected leader, he would be much stronger on intellect than charisma," says one party member.
Ms Bell believes that her energy, enthusiasm and community activist background are what is needed for the job.
"I am the candidate to initiate the practical steps necessary to help the party out of its general malaise," she says. Her supporters hope the party is ready to embrace the idea of a female leader.
Mr Ford says he would sharpen Alliance's political focus. "The agreement hasn't delivered what people want," he says.
"We need to aggressively highlight the continuing petty sectarianism in Northern Ireland, particularly in the Assembly. Our message needs to be that managing divisions is not enough, we must work to overcome them."
Both camps say the vote is too close to call and much will depend on the performance of the candidates when they address delegates tomorrow.