HUNGARY’S centre-right Fidesz opposition party is expected to win a landslide victory in tomorrow’s general election, but the headlines could be stolen by nationalists who stand to make startling gains.
The far-right Jobbik party is vying for second place with the ruling Socialists, whose support has been decimated by scandals, corruption and an economic crisis that forced Hungary to seek emergency help from the International Monetary Fund.
Jobbik has enjoyed a boom in popularity thanks to vigorous local campaigning across Hungary, but above all because of its pledge to bring patriotism back into politics and crack down on crime – particular the “gypsy crime” it claims is blighting the nation.
Jobbik’s many critics at home and abroad denounce the party as a group of dangerous extremists who are using demagoguery to turn a frustrated country’s anger against a vulnerable minority, and rights groups report an alarming rise in fatal attacks on Roma in recent years.
“For 500 years, gypsies have not been able to adopt the cultural norms to live in peace with the majority,” Jobbik candidate Andras Kisgergely told a recent rally.
“Nine out of 10 criminals are gypsies . . . We need to end that. We need to improve public safety and create jobs. Make them work. We need to tie welfare to community work.”
Jobbik is also regularly accused of using anti-Semitic rhetoric and is closely linked with the Hungarian Guard, a paramilitary group that wears uniforms and uses emblems reminiscent of those associated with Hungary’s wartime fascist regime.
The organisation is fighting an official ban and its members still gather under a slightly different name. They insist they are not racist but are determined to restore and uphold “Hungarian values” and traditions and to provide assistance to a beleaguered populace.
Opinion polls suggest Fidesz will take about 40 per cent of votes, far ahead of the Socialists with about 12 per cent, with Jobbik close on their heels. Surveys show many voters are still undecided and that turnout will probably be low – something that is expected to favour Jobbik, whose supporters are seen as much more strongly motivated than those of the Socialists.
The Socialists secured a second consecutive term in power four years ago, but were thrown into disarray just five months after their April 2006 election victory by the release of a recording of a private speech made by party leader and prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsany, in which he admitted to “lying day and night” about the parlous state of the economy to win the ballot. He also said the government had done nothing of note in its first term to help drag Hungary from the mire.
Public anger at the speech fuelled major public protests in Budapest and a spate of riots, which constituted Hungary’s worst street violence since the 1956 uprising against the Soviets.
Mr Gyurcsany clung on in office but his personal popularity and that of his government was destroyed. He stepped down as prime minister and party leader last year, by which time the Socialists were ruling as a enfeebled minority in parliament.
The government’s public standing has also suffered due to the tough cost-cutting measures that it has been obliged to impose as part of an emergency €20 billion rescue package.
Fidesz has released few details of how it will manage Hungary’s ailing economy if it takes power, and is aware that it will struggle to fulfil any lavish spending plans while working under the close scrutiny of international lenders.
However after repeatedly flirting with Jobbik and other far-right groups to garner support in previous years, Fidesz has stated clearly that it will not work with the nationalists – or any other party – to secure the two-thirds majority in parliament that it would need to change key laws.
“We will not form a coalition in order to have two-thirds with anyone. We will have the initiatives and the other parties will vote as they want,” said Fidesz spokesman Peter Szijjarto. “We’ll have no co-operation with Jobbik because it is an extremist party, a party of violence. They are pretty dangerous to Hungary . . . I don’t see a way of co-operating with the Socialists either.”