Recovering exports produced an unexpected trade surplus for the euro zone in September, data showed today, pointing to a positive contribution to growth in the third quarter and beyond.
The European Union's statistics office Eurostat said the seasonally unadjusted external trade surplus in the 16 countries using the euro was €3.7 billion in September against market expectations of a €2 billion deficit in a Reuters poll.
"The recent improving trend in the euro zone's net trade performance reinforces belief that it was a significant factor in the region's return to growth in the third quarter, and September's trade data boosts hopes that it can contribute further in the fourth quarter," said Howard Archer, economist at IHS Global Insight.
Eurostat also revised upwards August trade data to deficit of €2.3 billion rather than the previously reported €4 billion. In September 2008, the deficit was €6 billion.
The euro zone returned to growth in the third quarter with a 0.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter economic expansion after five quarters of contraction. The European Commission expects the economy will grow 0.2 per cent in the last three months of 2009.
Unadjusted data showed that while still well below last year's levels, exports were recovering in year-on-year terms.
The annual exports fall was 18 per cent in September against 21 percent in August. Imports improved less - they were 24 per cent lower than in September 2008, against a 26 per cent fall in August signalling soft domestic demand.
Adjusted for seasonal swings, the euro zone had an even bigger trade surplus of €6.8 billion in September, up from €2.2 billion in August, as exports jumped 5.5 per cent month-on-month and imports rose only 1.1 per cent.
"While these figures measure the value of trade in goods rather than the volume of trade in goods and services, they do suggest that net trade probably made a clear positive contribution to quarterly GDP growth in Q3," said Martin van Vliet, economist at ING bank.
"A closer examination of the trade figures shows that the export turnaround was mainly driven by a rebound in demand from Asia - US demand for euro zone export goods continued to weaken," he said.
In August exports fell 4.1 per cent month-on-month and imports declined 1 per cent in seasonally adjusted.
The trade surplus in September comes despite the euro then hitting a 12-month high against the US dollar after a steady climb since the start of March and a rise in the trade weighted value of the euro in September to 116.32 from 113.99, in a sign demand factors have a greater impact on trade than exchange rates.
But continued euro gains are likely to have an adverse effect on trade, economists said.
"With the strong euro hurting exporter price competitiveness, many euro zone exporters will continue to struggle for some time to come. There is still a long way to go before the export sector fully recovers," Mr van Vliet said.
Reuters