Euro zone rates too low - OECD

The OECD said European Central Bank interest rates are still below a "neutral" level and so continue to stimulate economic activity…

The OECD said European Central Bank interest rates are still below a "neutral" level and so continue to stimulate economic activity in the euro zone.

Market expectations for a further ECB tightening move in the next three months are realistic, it said.

"The level of interest rates remains below most estimates of the neutral rate, so monetary policy is still supporting activity," the OECD said in a report on the euro zone economy.

The level of interest rates remains below most estimates of the neutral rate, so monetary policy is still supporting activity
OECD

"Financial markets are pricing in at least another 25 basis point increase in rates over the next three months. This is realistic, as the ECB has made clear that monetary stimulus will continue to be removed so long as the recovery broadens and no major negative shocks push output or inflation off course," it said.

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The ECB's main interest rate is currently at 3.50 per cent

The OECD said there are so far few signs of knock-on effects from higher oil prices onto wages, but various measures of core inflation and producer prices are signalling potential inflationary pressures over the next year or two.

The organisation said the appreciation of the euro has also contributed to a tightening of monetary conditions in the euro zone.

The euro's rise so far should not be a worry for the euro zone economy, but a further surge could pose problems, it said.

The OECD said the euro zone economic recovery seems set to continue over the next year or two.

It reiterated its forecasts for GDP growth of 2.2 per cent in 2007 and 2.3 per cent in 2008, after growth of 2.6 per cent last year.