CHAD:The planned EU deployment to Chad is undermanned and underequipped for its mission, and risks becoming engulfed in the region's conflicts, according to a study published by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
Last week, the Dáil approved the participation of up to 450 Irish troops in the EU mission, which is mandated to protect civilians and facilitate aid in Chad's volatile eastern borderlands.
France will provide more than half the planned 4,300 troops, with Ireland making up the second-largest contingent. Other contributing countries include Austria, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden.
The study, published by MIT's security studies programme, says the UN-mandated force would require 12,500 soldiers to be effective due to the "large and challenging area of operations and the potential for increased size and dispersal of the population to be protected".
The author, Bjoern H Seibert, says that even if the mission consisted of 12,500 troops, the force-to-space ratio - with only 0.06 troops per square kilometre - would still be very low compared to previous operations.
Mr Seibert points out that the UN-mandated Operation Turquoise in Rwanda failed largely because of an insufficient force, but it had a larger force-to-space ratio, 0.35 troops per square kilometre, than the proposed Chad mission.
Some of the challenges of an undermanned force could be offset, he says, by a "virtual presence" created by equipping the force with enough helicopters to give the impression of an "omnipresent force".
The deployment currently faces delay because of a lack of essential equipment such as aircraft, with EU military chiefs saying they need 10 extra helicopters to police the area close to Chad's border with Sudan properly.
"Unless European countries are willing to commit more troops and resources, [ the EU force] will face serious difficulties achieving the ambitious objectives of the mission," Mr Seibert, a former member of the German army, said.
The report also examines the EU mission's exit strategy, concluding that it is unlikely to be able to hand over to a UN follow-on force within the expected timeframe of one year.
As the conflict in Chad has little chance of being resolved soon, it is possible that the EU is actually committing itself to a long-term mission, the study says.
"With the increasing costs of operation, public support for a protracted and expensive intervention is bound to decline," it concludes.
"At the same time the longer [ the EU force] stays . . . the more likely it is to get entangled in the complex web of conflicts that have haunted the region for the past 20 years."
Reuters adds: Chad's army attacked an anti-government rebel group for a second day yesterday, trying to dislodge the insurgents from their mountain hideout near the eastern border with Sudan's Darfur region, army sources said.
The latest clashes occurred after government troops moved on Monday against fighters of the rebel Assembly of Forces for Change sheltering in the rugged Kapka mountain range northeast of the town of Biltine.
President Idriss Déby's forces have been engaging at least three rebel factions in the heaviest fighting in months in eastern Chad following the collapse of an October 25th peace accord.