Cabinet's gut instinct may be to scrap Luas plan

The Opposition this week berated the Government for delaying the decision on Luas

The Opposition this week berated the Government for delaying the decision on Luas. It even suggested that the Minister, Mary O'Rourke, had organised her press conference for the afternoon of the Cabinet meeting assuming that the Cabinet would make the decision but that she had to change her plans at the last minute: merely to publish the report rather than announce a decision.

Drapier tended to believe the Opposition until one particular statistic hit him like a runaway train and that was that a mere 1 per cent reduction in the numbers travelling by car would occur as a result of the implementation of Luas.

That statistic alone would set off alarm bells with any reasonable person given that the possible expense for Luas could range from £250 million to £550 million depending on the option chosen. If one was then to add in the political fallout likely to occur because of disruption during construction, Drapier questions is it any wonder the Cabinet decided to take a bit longer to make its decision.

Drapier believes the Government is "between a rock and a hard place" given those statistics; probably the gut reaction is to scrap the Luas project and take other, less costly, options. But if it were to do that it would be abused by the proponents of a light rail system and also by the Opposition. It would be seen as having "funked" the issue.

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Drapier believes this Luas proposal has gone so far down the track that it cannot be stopped now and that the Government will probably choose the underground option even though, according to the consultants, implementation will not make any appreciable difference to the car traffic which, at the end of the day, is what is causing people most angst in the city.

The Garda pay problem took up quite a lot of time in the Chamber this week. The Opposition had John O'Donoghue against the ropes. Both O'Donoghue and Charlie McCreevy struggled against the brickbats from the combined Opposition. The Taoiseach, who has previously been accused of dithering under pressure, certainly pulled no punches on Wednesday when he bluntly told the gardai the Government would not budge.

Drapier does not think much of the blue flu campaign by the gardai. Their representatives are denying that the gardai are "telling lies" on this one, but the general public does not believe them if the radio talk shows are anything to go by. All in all, this is a situation in which the Government is on a loser no matter which way it goes.

Drapier would warn the Government members to be careful in that any indiscretion by them will be exploited to the full by the gardai.

This is a problem which could have the potential of unnerving the Government members irreversibly. History shows that governments cannot bear the brunt of countrywide anger like this. The next few weeks could be tough for Bertie and Co.

On the other hand, the gardai need to show they are acting responsibly. It's being rumoured that a lot of this brinkmanship is to do with Garda Representative Body elections next week in which most of the main Garda spokespersons are going forward and obviously are trying to show their voters which of them is the best to state their case. From what Drapier hears, the politics within the Garda body is even more intense than in Leinster House.

Drapier was somewhat annoyed at the newspapers on Wednesday when, side by side with the reports regarding the Garda pay issue, articles carried news (old news at that) about the higher expenses for Oireachtas members.

From what Drapier could see this was merely a rehash of previous news and why the editors chose to reproduce this during, of all weeks, this week, is beyond him.

The reports would give the impression that Oireachtas members are giving themselves yet another rise on top of the one they attained a number of weeks ago, and nothing could be further from the truth. The expenses we get hardly pay for our outgoings in running constituency offices, clinics, etc, which are required (and demanded) by the public.

At the weekend there was a lot of huffing and puffing from certain quarters that names were going to be named in the Dail concerning an allegation that Fianna Fail figures pressurised the Garda into arresting a man on suspicion of leaking documents detrimental to the President, Mrs McAleese, and her presidential campaign.

Drapier read in one paper that Jim Mitchell was to use the privilege of the House to name the Fianna Fail figure. Drapier saw Jim coming into the Chamber a number of times this week but, unusually for him, he stayed quiet. Drapier thought we might have had some fireworks in the Dail this week in this regard but this was not to be.

The much-heralded housing prices crisis got an airing in the chamber this week when the Government pushed through a number of measures on stamp duty. The Opposition criticised the Government mainly for acting too late. Now that the euphoria of the publication of the Bacon Report has died down, Drapier gathers around the corridors that a lot of deputies are coming to terms with the implications of these proposals and that they don't like what they hear.

Particularly, Drapier is aware of severe disquiet among rural deputies who believe nationwide measures have been taken in order to cure what, in effect, is a Dublin, Cork and Galway problem.

Over the years Fianna Fail has regarded itself as the custodian of the builders, but Drapier has heard that a fair few builders are not particularly happy with the party. It could be an interesting few weeks when the Minister for Finance brings in the Special Finance Bill in connection with these proposed changes. Can we see a Fianna Fail revolt coming?