Beware, Bertie, the body clock of this Dail is ticking away

Political drama does not require the Leinster House players to be on stage, as events have proved recently

Political drama does not require the Leinster House players to be on stage, as events have proved recently. The week began with Charlie McCreevy receiving a lash in this newspaper's editorial column in the culmination of a polemic that was far more enjoyable (and rancorous) than most Dail debates of my experience. Charlie will say "that's The Irish Times for you", but I think there's a pair of them in it.

Some of us believe Charlie's folksy, down-to-earth style contains a degree of haughtiness that requires gentle deflation now and again. And, given the recent ineffectiveness of what passes for political opposition, it is hardly surprising that the media sometimes offer themselves as a substitute.

The mood in Leinster House will be more focused when we return the week after next. We all know that the run-in to the next election has started and, while no party wants one right now, the body clock of the 28th Dail is ticking away inexorably.

The independents will be the first to reveal symptoms of this political menopause and the change of life from confident optimism about the Government's immortality will quickly transform itself into nervous realisation about its life span. Expect a stream of motions affecting regional matters and (groan) socio-sexual issues designed to prise independents away from the Government.

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Expect, also, some pronounced posturing from independents whose support for the Government will depend on its position on this or that question in Kerry, Wicklow or Donegal - in that order. These theatrics can be dealt with in the early and middle parts of most government terms, when ministers know well that the last thing independents want is an election, given the daunting cost of a campaign without party resources. But when an election campaign platform is provided by crisis and confrontation with the Dublin establishment . . ?

Are the parties ready for the slow-motion election campaign that will now commence? Fine Gael and John Bruton lurch from anonymous torpor to frenzied demands for inquiries, resignation and so on. Bruton's reflex response to the missing 1969 State papers was unfortunate and could have happened to anybody, given the reports. But it only served to underline the manner in which the greatest Taoiseach-we-never-elected tends to thrash around whenever he sees the whites of the Government's eyes.

His recent performance on Marian Finucane's radio show was another example of a politician being roughed up and shown up by a journalist, perhaps unfairly, I thought after listening to the actual arguments. But did Bruton really have to contradict the constant mantra of his own Finance spokesperson, Michael Noonan, by predicting that the collapse of the Government was not imminent?

I anticipate further exaggerated efforts by Bruton and Fine Gael to manufacture Government crises, but such tactics indicate the lack of a substantial policy alternative.

Labour has similar problems. Rushing to occupy similar ground somewhere near the left of centre - like Fine Gael, like Fianna Fail, like virtually everyone - it has struggled to identify itself. Ruairi Quinn may have devoted too much time to organisational merger with the previously detested Stickies, and not enough to policies that can distinguish his party from others.

Tony Blair has shown that the triumph of PR over politics can work but Quinn has not, so far, even managed to create a coherent image for his newly merged party.

There were not even any short-term electoral gains for Labour in the locals last summer, when the combined vote of the two parties failed to equal, never mind outstrip, the sum of their individual voter share. And then there are the dreaded Shinners. Labour's shift rightwards from an already milk-and-water socialism to Blairite politics has left a worryingly large vacuum previously occupied by Labour and Democratic Left.

The only party with a sense of optimism currently is Sinn Fein and, while they too would like a little more time to develop their electoral appeal, their lean and hungry young activists are swarming all over the bleak, neglected housing estates of Dublin and other parts.

None of which means that Bertie Ahern - much less Mary Harney, whose party could be facing extinction - can look forward to an easy election. Bertie's Jack Lynch style of leadership did not prevent Fianna Fail from recording another disconcertingly low share of first preference votes at the last election - just 0.2 per cent higher than Albert Reynolds's 39.1 per cent in 1992.

Irish voters are innately hostile to all-powerful leaders but they do want the appearance of firm leadership. Mr Nice Guy from Drumcondra can sometimes come across as indecisive, as his post-Budget performance proved when he capitulated on tax individualisation and to the trade unions in rapid succession. The spectacle of his back-benchers and Jim McDaid leading the way over the John Ellis scandal hardly underlined Bertie's leadership and control of the party.

Bertie's indecision is exemplified by his fear of alienating anybody with the slightest political clout. From the appointment of Ray Burke, as well as others since then, to the handling of the European Commissioner's appointment, Bertie is guided by the fear of creating resentment from any quarter. This is all right when he comes to running a local constituency organisation but it hardly smacks of the vision thing, nationally.

The failure to reshuffle his tired Cabinet is a good example. Tony Blair is preparing to reshuffle his cabinet for the third time in as many years, maintaining a vibrant, forward-moving image. Bertie has been advised of the need to do the same thing but his instinctive political paranoia has reduced him to efforts to persuade soon-to-retire Ministers like David Andrews and Michael Woods to do the decent thing, thus "allowing" the Taoiseach to present some new faces to the electorate.

Oppositions don't win elections - governments lose them, according to the old adage. However, the Opposition is expected to play some role in this process. By the same token, Bertie must show that he is more than a decent skin and prove that he runs the country. He could start by running his own show.