Awkward embrace threatens to suffocate PDs

Drapier is not normally much given to hymn singing, but the mood in here this week brought to mind the dirgeful tones of Abide…

Drapier is not normally much given to hymn singing, but the mood in here this week brought to mind the dirgeful tones of Abide With Me, and in particular the words, "Change and decay in all around I see." The simple fact is that this Dail is dying and everybody in here knows that. As one PD remarked to Drapier, it is not a question of "if"; it is a question of "when".

Wednesday was a night for the connoisseur. Leinster House is a place of moods and the mood on Wednesday was one of nervous apprehension. It was a sombre evening and while cross-party friendships and civility remained intact the easy camaraderie of other times was missing. In Fianna Fail the mood is one of resignation, many of the younger TDs openly expressing their anger at having continuously to carry the burden of the Haughey years, tarred with the sins of others like the biblical scapegoat of old. To have been a member of the class of '89 in Fianna Fail is, by now, to be guilty by association and there was little sympathy, least of all among the younger members, for those involved.

The PDs behaved as the PDs always do in times of crisis and became a group apart, sitting by themselves and talking largely to themselves, serious and sniffy and wondering how they got into this mess in the first place. The Opposition parties could hardly believe their luck, but were anxious not to appear vindictive or bloody-minded - and not always succeeding.

But over it all was the certainty that this Dail has outlived its usefulness. The "knell of death" was how one opposition TD described the tolling of the division bells as we all trooped in to vote, wondering how many more Wednesday evenings we would have here before this Dail came to an end.

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That, at any rate, is the consensus in here. But that does not necessarily mean it is going to happen. All the signs of terminal decay are there, but as Drapier said last week, it could linger for weeks, months or even a year as the PDs - in whose hands rests the fate of the Government - wait for a suitable exit opportunity and an issue on which they can put clear blue water between Fianna Fail and themselves and go to the country with some hope of salvaging something.

There is a certain irony in all of this. Mary Harney and the PDs entered this Government on the basis of trust. They were going to be good and supportive partners. Mary Harney has been as good as her word, even if she has had to swallow fairly hard on more than one occasion.

Now, however, the closeness of this embrace is threatening to suffocate the PDs. It could be seen in the body language all week. The bounce was gone, the faces had a hangdog look as the members, for the most part, kept their own counsel. Only Dessie O'Malley seemed to be enjoying it all. He made a good speech on Wednesday night, with a barely-concealed threat that Fianna Fail was living on borrowed time as far as he was concerned and made little effort to conceal his own belief that the game was up. Pat Rabbitte's reaction to Dessie's speech was to put a three-month limit on the lifetime of the Government, and few would disagree.

Dessie's speech was about vindication. The simple fact is that O'Malley has been proven right. He, along with George Colley, opposed Charlie Haughey for all the reasons that are now so obvious. He did take a stand and he, along with colleagues, offered Fianna Fail a different way. He was rejected, and brutally so, by people who were loud and ostentatious supporters of Mr Haughey then and who today can barely recall his name.

Drapier had some sympathy for Beverly Cooper-Flynn and feels that Labour's glee at forcing her to vote against the party and lose the whip was ill-judged. What was any daughter expected to do in the circumstances? The rest of us may have one view of Padraig Flynn, but Beverly Cooper-Flynn has always been proud of her father and loyal to him and in Drapier's book that does her credit.

That said, Drapier was not impressed with her speech. It was too well crafted with too much of the professional PR man's - or woman's - hand in it to be entirely convincing. A shorter, simpler speech from the heart would have been more effective.

Her expulsion, however, does pose a real dilemma. Normally these sort of things mean more to the media than to the politicians and after a short interval the whip is restored, especially if the expelled person continues to vote with the party in the meantime. Drapier does not expect to see Beverly Cooper-Flynn voting with Fine Gael or Labour but whether she will make an early return to Fianna Fail is ceist eile. She was deeply hurt by what happened and she may well decide to stay as an Independent for the foreseeable future doing few favours to Bertie Ahern, or maybe even to pack it all in. Drapier doubts that this will happen, but she would be less than human if it did not enter her mind at this particularly difficult time.

Normally in a crisis like this, the Government would have the prospect of some breathing space ahead, some natural break looming, such as a recess, for example, something which would give it time to gather its forces and plan a recovery. This time it's different and it's different for the simple reason that the tribunals will continue in virtually permanent session for the indefinite future, generating greater and deeper anger in their wake.

Nor is there any likelihood that the news is going to get any better. It won't, and if it touches even one of the surviving class of '89, then the PDs will have their justification for doing what they want to do.

The stakes for Bertie Ahern have never been higher. If the PDs pull out, not alone will his Government collapse but he will face into the subsequent election totally on his own. As Drapier said last week, if the election is precipitated by a tribunal-related issue, then it will be Fianna Fail versus the rest and the indications in terms of voting transfers are desperately serious. Last time out, Fianna Fail won at least seven seats on the back of PD transfers. And that's only for starters.

Bertie Ahern is a fighter. He will do everything in his power to save his Government. But he finds himself in a situation where his destiny is largely in the hands of others. The tribunals have taken on a life of their own and will go their own way. The PDs will make their decisions in their own time and on their own terms and the Opposition will continue to hunt and harry an increasingly beleaguered Government. Bertie will need to be a Houdini to get out of this one.