The future of Berlusconismo?

PROFILE:  MARINA BERLUSCONI:The wave of scandals that appear to be enguilfing the Italian prime minister might prompt his eldest daughter to enter the political field herself, writes PADDY AGNEW

MARINA BERLUSCONI owes a lot to her plastic surgeon. Over the years, Angelo Villa has not only given Berlusconi a dramatically different, carefully chiselled look but also done something arguably even more important, introducing her to a close friend, the former La Scala opera house dancer Maurizio Vanadia, now her husband and the father of her two children.

Many would argue that 44-year-old Berlusconi, daughter by his first marriage of the Italian prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, is a chip off the old block. She shares her famous father’s enthusiasm for plastic surgeons and business success.

Could it be that the much worked-on Berlusconi is about to follow another paternal trait and take to the field of politics? As the 74-year-old prime minister becomes ever more embroiled in the latest of the seemingly unending series of scandals and judicial investigations that have marked his 17 years in political life, there are those, even among his most loyal supporters, who reluctantly acknowledge that “Our Silvio” cannot last forever.

For years, the Italian centre right has been obsessed with the “après Berlusconi”. So dominant has been Silvio Berlusconi’s hold of his in-house, company-constructed party – originally Forza Italia and now the People Of Freedom Party, or PDL – that many find it difficult to envisage it without him in charge. When the populist media tycoon goes, then much of his political heritage will go with him, they argue. The PDL (or whatever new name is invented for the next general election) without Silvio Berlusconi would be like the Billy Graham Evangelistic Association without Billy Graham.

There are those party hacks, however, who feel that they may have found a way to ensure the continued survival of “Berlusconismo”. Namely, you try to pass on the mantle of his populist, dumbed-down, TV-driven centre-right movement to Marina.

Obviously, this seems much more like a monarchical rather than a democratic way forward for Italy, but such is the hold that Berlusconi senior has on the collective imagination of many Italians that the idea has to be taken seriously. Furthermore, argue supporters, the idea of a family dynasty in politics is hardly new – ever heard of the Bush, Clinton or Kennedy families?

For years Marina Berlusconi has kept a very low profile, steering clear of national politics and only occasionally making the gossip magazines when she would do something “outrageous”, such as go topless on her summer holiday.

It was Berlusconi herself, however, who sparked the most recent round of speculation last weekend when she became involved in a public spat with Roberto Saviano, the award-winning author of the best-seller Gomorrah, a brilliant in-depth analysis of the Camorra, the Neapolitan Mafia. Receiving an honorary degree at Genoa University last weekend, Saviano dedicated his award to the three public prosecutors who have led the current Rubygate sex-scandal investigation into Silvio Berlusconi’s allegedly very lively after-hours activities.

An outraged Marina Berlusconi surprised many by springing to the defence of her father, calling Saviano’s gesture “horrible” and using the paternal anti-magistrate lexicon to say: “Saviano is trampling all over everything he has always claimed to fight for, namely respect for freedom, legality and the dignity of people.”

To which Saviano responded that the only truly “horrible” thing to do would be to “isolate them , to delegitimise them and to threaten them with punishment”, just as the prime minister had done on television the previous week. Such an attitude, concluded Saviano, “inevitably means weakening the judiciary in Italy . . . and doing a favour to the Mafia”.

All of this might seem normal enough were it not for the fact that Saviano is published by Mondadori, the Berlusconi-owned publishing house that Marina heads. To date Saviano’s Gomorrah has sold 2.3 million copies in Italy and another 3.5 million around the world, making it arguably the greatest Italian publishing sensation of recent years. For Marina Berlusconi to reprimand publicly her star writer would be a bit like Random House issuing a statement to the effect that all those books by Dan Brown were really not very good, after all.

Economically, it made no sense, but politically? The reality is that, in the Italy of the Berlusconi era, there are many who buy into the prime minister’s mantra that he is the victim of a political witch hunt by the judiciary. While many Italians remain sceptical about someone who has been involved in 28 major trials and more than 100 judicial investigations, there are also those who, despite the formidable body of evidence, remain convinced that the charismatic Silvio really has been persecuted.

What is sure is that if you want to strut your pro-Berlusconi, centre-right stuff, then there is no better target than the magistrates. Which just might explain the astonishing attack on Saviano. After all, there are at least two very good reasons why such an attack made no sense. For a start, Saviano makes a lot of money for her company. Secondly, the 31-year-old writer has become an iconic figure for his generation, someone whose courageous analysis of organised crime has earned him not only rock-star status but also death threats from the Camorra. It is not for nothing that, for the past four years, Saviano has lived a Salman Rushdie-style life, under constant police protection.

Intriguingly, the Berlusconi-family-owned daily, Il Giornale, this week chose to interpret Marina Berlusconi’s defence of her father as more than that, running a headline that read: “Marina B takes to the field.” This was a deliberate reference to Silvio Berlusconi’s January 1994 TV address to the nation, from his now infamous Villa San Martino in Arcore, when he announced that he was “taking to the field” of politics, two months before he pulled off a remarkable overnight election success. Previously, Il Giornale had already concluded that “after Silvio, there can only be Marina”.

Nor is it only the prime minister’s supporters who have begun to think in terms of a Berlusconi dynasty. Last November Italo Bocchino, a senior figure in the Future and Liberty right-wing party, which broke away from Silvio Berlusconi’s coalition last autumn, polemically suggested on a TV talk show that Berlusconi must think that he himself had built Government House. Thus it was something that he could pass on to his children, Marina or her younger brother, Piersilvio.

Bocchino’s observation found little favour with Marina Berlusconi, who angrily dubbed it in bad taste, adding that her father already had more than enough houses, “all paid for with the fruit of his hard work”. Cynics would point out that despite Marina’s denials, then and now, of any intention to step into party politics, there are very good reasons why it could still happen.

For a start, with his trusted daughter in government, Silvio Berlusconi would feel that he had seen off his worst nightmare, in that she would be able to guarantee him some form of judicial immunity in his old age (particularly if he fails to realise his alleged ambition to become president). Secondly, Marina’s entry into politics would fit in with the opposition view that has always argued that Silvio’s original move into politics had a great deal more to do with saving his own judicial and business neck than with trying to properly govern Italy.

Prof Roberto D’Alimonte, a political analyst at the LUISS university in Rome, is just one of many experts who take the idea seriously: “I have no inside knowledge, but you would have to think that this is a definite possibility . . . What is more, Marina is very tough.”

Just when we thought the days of a Berlusconi in Italian politics were coming to an end, perhaps we had better think again. Were Marina Berlusconi to arrive in Government House, you would also have to think that this was good news for plastic surgeons, whatever else it might mean.

Curriculum vitae

Who is she?The 44-year-old daughter of Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi. Head of the Berlusconi-owned publishing house Mondadori, she is the prime minister's daughter by his first marriage, to Carla Dall'Oglio.

Why is she in the news?Some believe that she could yet step into Daddy's footsteps, taking over the 74-year-old's populist centre-right party.

Most appealing featureTough, decisive, hard-nosed business operator.

Least appealing featureToo many visits to the plastic surgeon.

Most likely to say"I have no intention of entering the political fray at the moment".

Least likely to say"I will never enter the political fray".