Irish trade forecast to grow 125% by 2026


IRISH TRADE is predicted to grow 125 per cent by 2026, faster than the projected growth in global trade of 98 per cent, according to forecasts by international banking group HSBC.

A new trade report commissioned by HSBC has revised a forecast from February of 76 per cent growth by 2026 because of the significant rise in foreign direct investment in Ireland (FDI).

FDI increased by 22 per cent in 2011 compared with the EU average of a 3 per cent decline. The impact of this investment is likely to be felt from 2017.

Growth in trade is expected to be 4.5 per cent per year over the next five years, before accelerating to 7.2 per cent to 2021.

The US, UK and Germany will continue to be the biggest receivers of Irish goods. Saudi Arabia and Romania are predicted to be Ireland’s fastest growing export markets, with growth of 11 per cent and 10.6 per cent respectively, driven by medicines and agrifoods.

Ireland will continue to profit from the established market in the export of medicines, and biopharma is likely to be the fastest growing export sector, with growth of 15.1 per cent. Farming will continue to play an important role, with strong exports in meat and dairy. Exports of cheese and curd are set to rise by 6.4 per cent.

Ananth Krishnan, head of trade and supply chain at HSBC Ireland, said: “Predicted growth in excess of global growth is clearly very positive news for Ireland, and the challenge is to continually sustain and improve upon the momentum built up in the last few quarters.”