The public has reconsidered its dismissive attitude towards the Government in the aftermath of the Budget and now favours a continuation of Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats in office, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll.
A surge of 9 percentage points in the Government's satisfaction rating has helped to wipe out a lead that Fine Gael, the Labour Party and possibly the Green Party enjoyed in the government-formation stakes last September.
On the basis that elections are likely to be won or lost on economic issues, the Government is now in a powerful position while the alternative government parties are struggling to convince the electorate that they have both the policies and the personalities capable of doing a better job. Of particular interest has been the ability of Fianna Fáil to recapture the confidence of its own supporters, along with a portion of the undecideds. Local political activity, arising from the selection of general election candidates, may have been a contributory factor.
Four months ago, following a succession of scandals involving public waste, the appalling treatment of old people in nursing homes and an RTÉ television series detailing aspects of "Rip-off Ireland", almost a quarter of Fianna Fáil voters wanted a change of government. Since then, however, support for the re-election of the Government has increased by 8 points. Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats now attract 39 per cent approval, compared to 33 per cent for an alternative Fine Gael, Labour Party and Green Party arrangement.
A positive economic outlook for 2006, along with a socially progressive Budget that focused particularly on childcare and education, allowed the Government to recapture the confidence of the electorate. It surged ahead of the Fine Gael-led alternative coalition in terms of public support for managing the economy and keeping taxes low, while it extended its considerable lead on Northern Ireland issues. In spite of these advances, however, it was still under pressure in relation to its handling of consumer prices and childcare issues, while an alternative government was regarded as necessary to improve the health services.
The next election is still there to be won by either of the contending coalitions. For, while public confidence in the Government's ability to handle economic issues and the Northern Ireland peace process has recovered significantly in recent months, voters are still withholding support from Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats and that is particularly notable in Dublin. Overall, their combined vote falls slightly short of that enjoyed by Fine Gael, the Labour Party and the Green Party. The alternative coalition parties will be disappointed by these findings. But, having broken through the psychological barrier of being favoured by voters to run major elements of the economy last September, they now have targets to aim at and time in which to convince the electorate there are better ways of doing things.