The most important thing about the outcome of the election is not which party is going to get the most seats but whether the outcome will produce a government capable of governing. A repeat of the fragmentation that characterised the outcome four years ago is the last thing the country needs.
The battle between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil as to who will lead the next government will dominate the headlines during the campaign but of almost equal importance will be the performance of the Greens and the Labour Party. Both have made it clear that they are willing to enter government together so their combined performance will be almost as important as that of the two big parties in determining the shape of the next coalition and its policy direction.
Last time around Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil between them won slightly less than 50 per cent of the vote. It was the lowest share obtained by the two biggest parties between them in the history of the State and it produced a chaotic Dáil where the Government was able to survive only by the grace and favour of the Opposition.
Administrative devices
The confidence-and-supply arrangement with Fianna Fáil enabled the Fine Gael-led government to pass the annual budget but, apart from Brexit where it had the backing of most TDs, it was unable to do much else. It had to watch helplessly as the Dáil passed an array of Bills to which it was utterly opposed and the only way it could respond was to block them by a variety of administrative devices.
This time around the indications are that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil between them will win more than 50 per cent of the vote and may even push their combined share closer to 60 per cent. If that happens, whichever of them is bigger will be in a strong position to put a government together.
The big question is which of them it will be and there will be no answer to that until the votes are counted. At the start of the 2016 campaign the conventional wisdom was that Fine Gael would have about 60 seats and that Enda Kenny was on course to be the first Fine Gael leader to win two consecutive elections. Of course the outcome was nothing like that and Kenny held on by the skin of his teeth.
This time around the conventional wisdom has it that after nine years in government Fine Gael will inevitably fall behind Fianna Fáil. If that happens Micheál Martin will be in a strong position to lead the next government but Fianna Fáil will not have an easy task in re-establishing itself as the biggest party in the country.
All the indications are that Sinn Féin is going to lose seats this time and the only question is how many
One thing that will certainly be different in the aftermath of this election is that there will be other parties willing to go into coalition. Last time around Labour refused to continue in office with Fine Gael after the trauma of losing most of its seats while the Greens were just too small to make much difference.
This time around the Greens and Labour are telling voters they want to go into government. After their performance in May’s local and European elections and the more recent byelections the Greens are on course for significant gains, while Labour can realistically aim at about 10 seats. If the two parties between them can win close to 20 seats and either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael can get close to 60 it will be possible to put a stable administration in place with the support of a few Independents.
Coalition deal
Of course, that is a very big if. It is more likely that the big two will win in the region of 50 seats each. If the Green surge is not as strong as expected and Labour loses rather than gains seats then, even after a coalition deal, a ragbag of Independents will be needed to put a government in place.
Such an arrangement would require one of the big parties to engage in another confidence-and-supply arrangement but that looks highly unlikely. Fianna Fáil can’t contemplate doing it again, while Fine Gael will have difficulty supporting a three-party coalition from the outside, particularly if it is the biggest party and the Greens and Labour do a deal with Fianna Fáil.
If the outcome is as inconclusive as that the only stable government would be a coalition between the two big parties. Fine Gael was willing to do it the last time but Fianna Fáil declined mainly on the basis that it would put Sinn Féin in the position of leading the Opposition and continuing its upward trajectory.
All the indications are that Sinn Féin is going to lose seats this time and the only question is how many. If there is a total stalemate, Leo Varadkar may well repeat Enda Kenny’s offer of a grand coalition. In any such arrangement Martin would be likely to get the taoiseach’s office for the first half of the Government’s life and Varadkar the second half. It might be hard for the Fianna Fáil leader to refuse, particularly if Fine Gael remains the biggest party. More importantly it might be just what the country needs.