Nicola Sturgeon has reiterated her threat that Scotland could vote again on leaving the United Kingdom in the event of a hard Brexit.
Speaking as the Scottish government published a draft Bill on a second independence referendum on Thursday, the first minister said she was committed to protecting Scotland’s place in the single market but warned that a rerun of the 2014 vote on the union remained a possibility.
“If we find that our interests cannot be properly or fully protected within a UK context then independence must be one of the options open to us and the Scottish people must have the right to consider it,” Ms Sturgeon said.
The first minister’s comments open the possibility of a referendum before the UK formally leaves the EU, a process that is due to be completed in March 2019.
The draft referendum legislation sets out proposals for the rules governing the campaign, the conduct of the vote and how ballots are counted. Unlike in the recent Brexit referendum, EU citizens and 16- and 17-year-olds would be eligible to vote.
The Bill also suggests using the same question that 55 per cent of Scots rejected two years ago: “Should Scotland be an independent country?”
The draft legislation does not mean a second referendum will definitely be held. The eight-page document published yesterday will be put out for consultation until early January.
Even if the public does not suggest any major revisions, the Scottish parliament could struggle to pass the second referendum Bill. Under the draft legislation, the Edinburgh government would need a section 30 order from Westminster giving permission to hold for a second vote.
UK prime minister Theresa May has said she does not believe there is a mandate for another referendum on independence. Nationalists, however, will point to Ms May's Scottish elections in which the SNP won a third term in government on a manifesto that explicitly included the possibility of a second referendum if Scotland was "taken out of the EU against our will".
In June, 62 per cent of Scots voted to remain in the European Union. In the wake of the Brexit vote, Ms Sturgeon said a second referendum was "highly likely". But polls suggest most Scots still favour staying in the UK.
John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, says the possibility of a second referendum is 50:50. "Sturgeon's threat is not an empty threat but her positon is not as strong as she would like it to be."
Barrier
One barrier facing the nationalists is an economic slowdown caused in large part by falling oil prices. Also, while the Scottish National Party remain firmly committed to European Union membership, as many as a third of those who voted Yes in 2014 backed Brexit.
“Europe is too divisive an issue to base an independence campaign on. Not enough people care about it on its own to be a game changer,” says Prof Curtice.
“But if Brexit starts to go obviously pear-shaped for the UK than maybe public opinion will shift.”
Pro-union Scottish parties have already argued that there is no appetite in Scotland for another “divisive” referendum, and have pledged to fight it “every step of the way”.