Dublin likely to provide biggest upsets in the battle for Euro-seats

The election to the European Parliament might be less than a month away, on June 11th, but the sort of lively debate which normally…

The election to the European Parliament might be less than a month away, on June 11th, but the sort of lively debate which normally characterises election campaigns has been slow to start.

However, with nominations closing today and many political careers at stake, the likelihood of a hot-blooded political campaign increases enormously. Though largely personality-driven, the European elections will be seen in many ways as a test of the standing of all parties, particularly the performance of Fianna Fail in Government.

Unfortunately, it cannot serve as an evaluation of the Progressive Democrats since they have no candidates.

Because of its volatility, Dublin is set to provide the most interesting times over the next few weeks. This was the constituency which returned Mr Proinsias De Rossa, then of the Workers' Party, to Strasbourg in 1989, but saw Ms Patricia McKenna, of the Green Party, confound the sceptics five years later to take the seat.

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The backdrop in 1994 for an intriguing internal battle between Labour's two candidates, the television reporter Ms Orla Guerin and the ultimately successful Ms Bernie Malone, it will now see another bout of uncompromising rivalry within the newly-expanded ranks of Labour as Mr De Rossa strives to return to Strasbourg. Both he and Ms Malone are running for Labour.

This time, the overall result in Dublin depends greatly on the decision of one man, Mr Tony Gregory, the Independent TD who must decide this weekend if he will run. Up to now, he has been "seriously considering" the possibility of becoming a candidate but refuses to divulge his intentions before today.

However, sources close to Mr Gregory said yesterday that his deep involvement in several major urban renewal initiatives in his constituency, along with his activity in the anti-drugs campaign, may sway him against changing his political focus. Instead of setting his sights on Strasbourg, he is said to be more interested in becoming Lord Mayor of Dublin if proposed changes in local government law result in the position being directly elected by the people of Dublin.

However, a Fianna Fail poll conducted earlier this year suggests that Mr Gregory should throw caution to the wind. The findings indicated that Mr Niall Andrews (FF) and Ms Mary Banotti (FG) would take the first two seats and that Mr Gregory was destined to secure the third, with a dog-fight ensuing for the fourth.

In the poll, less than one percentage point separated the outgoing Ms McKenna, Ms Malone (Labour), Mr Ben Briscoe (FF), Mr Jim Mitchell (FG), Mr De Rossa (Labour) and Mr Joe Higgins (Independent Socialist). Observers predict that the ultimate struggle would be between Ms Malone and Mr Mitchell for the last seat.

In Leinster, the intrigue lies within Fine Gael where Sen Avril Doyle is tipped to provide the most obstinate barrier to Mr Alan Gillis's plans to retain the party's seat. A Fine Gael poll suggests she is six points ahead of the former IFA leader.

The only "leftish" Euro seat in the constituency is held by the State's second Green MEP, Ms Nuala Ahern, and she is considered to be in a strong position to hold out against Fine Gael pressure.

Fianna Fail has split the constituency into north and south to ensure maximum support for Mr Jim Fitzsimons, MEP for Leinster since 1984, and Mr Liam Hyland, who was returned to Strasbourg five years ago. Mr Hyland is by far the most comfortable.

Labour had its own convulsions over choosing a candidate as veteran member Mr Michael Bell failed to secure the nomination and resigned briefly as chairman of his parliamentary party. The Labour vote in Leinster is at 16 per cent but the candidate who came through the selection convention, Mr Sean Butler (26), is not expected to make sufficient impact to take a seat.

European elections in Munster have been tight in the past - the clash between Mr Des O'Malley and Mr Pat Cox springs to mind - but this occasion promises to be far tamer.

Mr Brian Crowley, elected for the first time in 1994 with more than 84,000 first preference votes, and Mr Gerard Collins, of Fianna Fail, are likely to keep their seats despite internal tensions over campaigning tactics.

In spite of the feeling that the four outgoing MEPs will be returned, much attention will turn to Sinn Fein's Mr Martin Ferris who is expected to put in a strong performance and provide an indication how he might do in a general election.

Mr John Cushnahan, of Fine Gael, is also expected to retain his seat and Mr Cox, who enjoys the highest profile of all Irish MEPs, is a certainty. Labour has high hopes for Ms Paula Desmond, a councillor for 15 years and the first woman to chair Cork County Council, but she not expected to unbalance the present equation. She is the daughter of Ms Eileen Desmond, once a Labour MEP.

Voters in the Connacht-Ulster three-seater are reputed to be the most educated in the State on European politics. Funding, CAP reform and regional development aid are all local issues.

The arrival of Dana Rosemary Scallan on the scene is expected to colour but not disrupt the outcome. Her absence from Ireland since the presidential election and lengthy speculation about whether she would run in Munster or Connacht-Ulster have not enhanced her chances.

Mr Mark Killilea, Fianna Fail MEP since 1987, is retiring and the Minister of State, Mr Noel Treacy, is expected to replace him. His running mate, Mr Pat "The Cope" Gallagher, seen as the electoral chieftain of Donegal, is sure to be returned.

Fine Gael's Mr Joe McCartin was first elected in 1979 and will be again, which should preserve the status quo.

Of the 15 European Parliament seats, Fianna Fail holds seven; Fine Gael has four; the Green Party has two; Labour has one and there is one Independent. Tomorrow, a series of constituency profiles begins with Chris Dooley taking an in-depth look at the Leinster constituency.