Barring the most spectacular upset in the country's political history, the moderate Labour party leader, Mr Ehud Barak, will today be elected prime minister of Israel, ousting the hardline Benjamin Netanyahu, and opening the path to a revived peace process with the Palestinians.
Three no-hope candidates for the prime ministership have dropped out of the race at the eleventh hour, leaving the field clear for Mr Barak and Mr Netanyahu, and opinion polls suggest the Labour leader could be heading for victory by a margin of 6 per cent or more.
"Israel is uniting before our very eyes to bring change and hope," a jubilant Mr Barak told supporters last night, urging Israelis from across the political spectrum to vote for him.
But Mr Netanyahu, who came from behind to defeat Labour's Shimon Peres and take power three years ago, was not conceding defeat. He insisted that the polls were wrong, and that his voters, having toyed with other candidates, were now "coming home" in droves. "We'll surprise everybody," the prime minister vowed.
The three minor prime ministerial candidates withdrew their candidacy within the space of 24 hours. First to go, on Saturday evening, was Mr Azmi Bishara, an Israeli-Arab Knesset member, who said that he had achieved his objective - putting the demand for equality for Israel's 800,000 Arab citizens high on the national political agenda.
Mr Bishara said he had reached various "understandings" with Mr Barak on improved treatment for Israeli Arabs, but stressed that his Knesset party was not interested in joining a Barak-led coalition, and refrained from endorsing Mr Barak. Nevertheless, a substantial proportion of Mr Bishara's voters are likely to opt for Mr Barak.
The second candidate to drop out, the centrist Mr Yitzhak Mordechai, was the critical one so far as Mr Barak's hopes were concerned. Had Mr Mordechai stayed in the race, the polls suggested, Mr Barak might have failed to clear the 50 per cent hurdle in tomorrow's vote, and would have had to face a run-off against Mr Netanyahu on June 1st, with the two-week delay giving the prime minister vital breathing space in which to try to improve his standing.
Mr Mordechai, who served as Mr Netanyahu's defence minister until January, said yesterday morning that he was withdrawing his candidacy and endorsing Mr Barak because it was clear he himself could not win, and he wanted to spare Israel "the hatred and violence" that might ensue over two more weeks of electioneering.
The final days of the campaign have seen a number of clashes between rival activists, and a TV crew was attacked as it filmed activists erecting party banners at a crossroads near Tel Aviv on Saturday night.
Finally, last night, Mr Beni Begin, a hardliner who seeks to prevent any further territorial concessions to the Palestinians, said he was bowing to the inevitable and quitting the race as well. Mr Begin has been among Mr Netanyahu's harshest critics, and refrained from endorsing the prime minister, but his colleagues in the right-wing National Union party did urge supporters to vote for Mr Netanyahu.
Opinion polls published on Friday predicted that Mr Barak might win by anything from six to 13 per cent if the race came down to a straight contest with Mr Netanyahu. And while some pollsters were last night suggesting that the final outcome might be closer, one remarked that, if they had got it wrong this time, they might as well give up their polling work altogether.
Mr Netanyahu did his utmost yesterday to portray the string of last-minute withdrawals by prime ministerial candidates as part of a conspiracy against him. He accused Mr Barak of doing a deal with Mr Bishara, brokered by the Palestinians, to bring an independent Palestinian state "to the outskirts of Tel Aviv".
At a press conference, Mr Netanyahu produced various purported ex-activists from Mr Mordechai's Centre Party who said they were now supporting the prime minister.
If Mr Barak is elected today, he is likely to have little trouble forming a majority coalition. The surveys suggest that the new 120-seat Knesset, also to be voted in today, will be more left-leaning than its predecessor.
Still, Mr Barak has hinted that he might bring a defeated Likud into his coalition, to build a broader public consensus behind his policies, chief of which will be to try to rebuild relations with Mr Yasser Arafat's Palestinian Authority.
Mr Barak has not expressed opposition to an independent Palestinian state, but would attempt to negotiate limitations on Palestinian sovereignty so that, for instance, Palestine would not be able to sign military pacts with Arab states hostile to Israel or to build up a strong army.
Mr Barak would also seek to revive Israeli-Syrian peace talks, and has expressed readiness to trade land on the Golan Heights for a peace treaty.