Matt Williams: This is the quarter-final the All Blacks wanted – but Ireland should prevail

Last Saturday, moments after an exceptional Irish rugby team had demolished Scotland in their final pool game, my mate and colleague of 25 years Shane Horgan gazed into Irish rugby’s crystal ball and asked, “If not now, when?”

As I sat beside him in the Virgin Media TV studios, what followed Shane’s words were long seconds of silence. Silence is not a commodity that is encouraged on a TV panel that is employed to take rugby into millions of livingrooms across the country.

The silence reflected the enormity of the nation realising that their rugby team are good enough to beat New Zealand and win their quarter-final. The “If not now, when?” ignited a flicker of hope. Hope that previously had been quenched by decades of four-year cycles of self-deception.

In the past, the Irish rugby community wanted so desperately to hope for success that they had their ambitions mixed up with their abilities. In World Cup after World Cup Ireland wrongly believed in their teams far too deeply, only to have their hearts broken.

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So like all the broken-hearted, to have faith in the next one, after all that pain, has not been easy. As Ireland’s moment of truth comes closer Shane was really asking: “Ireland, are you brave enough to dare to hope?”

And hope we should. Factually, this Irish team does have the qualities to win this quarter-final, while four years ago in Japan they did not. In 2019, before Ireland’s quarter-final against New Zealand, I was trying to explain this glaring truth to an Irish nation that did not want to listen.

The rest of the planet could see that the New Zealand team of 2019 were going to rip the green team asunder. The overwhelming wave of evidence was showing that the tactics and mental attitude of the Irish team of 2019 was so inferior to the leaders at the tournament, that they did not stand a chance.

Even after being defeated by Japan, so many blindly continued the self-deception, believing that Ireland would magically whisper “Abracadabra” and pull a rugby rabbit out of the hat. The 46-14 defeat that year was of biblical proportions. When the Irish people realised they had been living in denial, it hurt.

So let’s get the facts out of the shadows and into the sunshine.

Firstly, there is no such beast as a poor New Zealand team. Every team that crosses the white strip and is wearing that famous black jersey with a silver fern on their heart is one of world sport’s most formidable and capable opponents.

This New Zealand team is especially dangerous because they have revenge in their heart. If your ultra-competitive opponents are highly-skilled warriors who believe that they have been disrespected, then those players will be transformed into revenge ninjas, hell-bent on proving themselves and regaining respect.

After Ireland defeated New Zealand in the Shaky Isles in 2022 the Kiwi players and coaches were publicly humiliated by their own people. This group of proud New Zealanders were deeply hurt by the experience. So do not be fooled. This New Zealand team have been hoping to draw Ireland in the quarter-finals to take their revenge.

Giving this enormously talented, if ageing, New Zealand team all the respect it rightly deserves, let me explain why the time has come for Ireland to banish their quarter-final curse into the waste-paper basket of history.

World Cups are won by the preparation completed years before the tournament commences.

New Zealand have played a significant role in the preparation of every winning World Cup campaign, even the ones they have not won. When the World Cup has been won by countries other than New Zealand, with the singular exception of South Africa in 2007, the winning teams have won or drawn test matches on New Zealand soil in the years previous to their successful World Cup campaign. The Wallabies in 1991 and 1999, the Springboks in 1995 and 2019, England in 2003, all defeated or drew with New Zealand in New Zealand in the seasons previous to their World Cup success.

This is highly significant because defeating New Zealand on their home soil, as Ireland have done, remains rugby’s greatest challenge. Teams that achieve this feat are injected with an astonishing surge of self-belief, momentum and confidence. Belief that dissipates the aura of invincibility that is woven by the well-crafted public relations mythology surrounding the black jersey.

Teams that win in New Zealand learn that the Kiwis are human with frailties like us all and the black jersey does not generate the force of a Jedi Knight.

Technically, the overwhelming significant factor between the Irish performances of 2019 and 2023 is this team’s outstanding defence.

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After a shaky start as defensive coach Simon Easterby has transformed the Irish defensive system, which haemorrhaged points during the 2019 World Cup, into a dynamic and highly-effective unit. Ireland’s defensive journey is personified by James Lowe, who was dropped two years ago after some very poor defensive decisions and missed tackles. Lowe’s tackling, scrambling defence and decision-making against South Africa were unrecognisable and vastly superior to his former displays.

Since professional rugby commenced in 1995, New Zealand’s official bookmakers, the NZ TAB, have only ever placed their national rugby team as underdogs in the betting on four occasions. All four games were against the Springboks in South Africa and New Zealand lost all four.

This week the NZ Tab has Ireland as favourites to win. Kiwi bookies love their national rugby team but they love their “Bugs Bunny” (money) even more.

So who are we to disagree with a bunch of Kiwis? As the NZ bookies say, it’s Ireland to win.