If Labour or Social Democrats – or both – have bad general election, merger speculation will intensify

There is perhaps no question that will cause more irritation at a Social Democrats press conference than whether or not there will ever be a merger with the Labour Party.

Take one example: in October former Labour leader Brendan Howlin said a merger could happen in the future. “We need critical mass – both of us . . . If we are ad idem on policies and our only difficulties is history, I think we could get over that,” he said.

The response from Social Democrats former co-leader Róisín Shortall during her next appearance on the Leister House plinth? “Look, we’ve dealt with this question umpteen times. There is not going to be any merger.”

New leader Holly Cairns, she said, was “very clear on that when she took over, as the rest of us are”.

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Shortall added: “We’re concentrating on growing the Social Democrats. It’s a new party. It’s a party that doesn’t have the baggage, I think, that Labour had.”

That baggage she referred to is most likely the Labour Party’s time in the post-economic crash coalition with Fine Gael.

There were tough decisions and austerity measures, the impact of which Labour has never recovered from electorally.

Openness to a merger has been one-way to date, with Labour Party figures not ruling it out and Social Democrats opposed.

The issue arose again during a Press Association interview with Labour Party leader Ivana Bacik, published on Thursday.

[ Labour-Social Democrats merger possible with ‘no ideological differences’ - Bacik ]

Her response indicates some irritation on the Labour side to the line of questioning.

She sought to shift the focus elsewhere, saying there was “no ideological difference” between Labour and the Social Democrats, “just as there’s no ideological difference between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael”.

Bacik suggested: “Perhaps the call for a merger, maybe, between those two centre-right parties may be the call after the next election.”

However, asked if she could countenance a possible merger in the future, she replied: “Everything is possible in politics.”

It is not hard to see why politicians from both parties are repeatedly asked about a merger given their similarities.

Both are on the centre-left. Two of the Social Democrats’ founders, Shortall and her fellow former co-leader Catherine Murphy, were Labour Party members earlier in their careers before separately leaving their former political home.

Both parties are on the same side on most social issues.

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The Social Democrats was founded in the summer of 2015 shortly after the marriage equality referendum. Many of its future members cut their political teeth on that campaign which had been spearheaded in government by Labour.

Both parties campaigned strongly to repeal the Eighth Amendment on abortion.

Seasoned observers of Irish politics would be hard-pressed to find any significant difference in terms of their approach or policies.

For her part Cairns would take issue with this.

She said in a separate recent interview that she believes Labour’s approach to government is not “compatible” with her party.

According to Cairns, Labour’s previous record in government includes supporting the privatisation of Bord Gáis and penalising lone-parent families.

She said: “It’s all well and good to say, ‘Oh they think they have the same policies as us’. They don’t have the same practices. That’s the overall difference between us.”

Be that as it may, there is another similarity between the parties – the threat posed to them by Sinn Féin.

Still riding high in the polls, Sinn Féin could potentially gobble up both parties’ support in June’s local elections.

The results then will offer some indication of the fate of Labour and the Social Democrats in the upcoming general election.

Labour has seven seats in the Dáil, while the Social Democrats have six.

Both parties can ill-afford to lose any if they are to stay relevantand have a chance of entering a coalition government.

If one, or both, parties have a bad election, expect the speculation on a merger to only intensify.

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