Middle EastAnalysis

Hizbullah constrained despite vowing revenge over killing of Hamas deputy leader

Shia Islamist political party and militant group embarrassed as killing of Saleh Arouri in Lebanon shows it cannot provide protection against drone attacks

People watch a televised speech of Hizbullah secretary general Hasan Nasrallah during an event to mark the fourth anniversary of top Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani's death, in Beirut, Lebanon, on Wednesday. Photograph: Abbas Salman/Shutterstock

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Michael Jansen
Wed Jan 3 2024 - 18:56

The location and timing of Tuesday’s assassination of the deputy head of Hamas’s politburo Saleh Arouri have made the strike highly significant. Although Israel has not assumed responsibility for the drone attack that killed him, prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu and other Israeli officials have repeatedly vowed to eliminate Hamas’s leaders wherever they may be.

Based in weak, crisis-ridden Lebanon, Arouri was the most vulnerable of Hamas’s senior leaders. The two top Hamas political leaders, Khaled Mishaal and Ismail Haniyeh, are hosted by US ally Qatar, which is off-limits for Israeli strikes, and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has warned Israel of heavy retaliation for targeting Hamas figures in Turkey.

The site of the attack, Hizbullah’s south Beirut Dahiya stronghold, demonstrated that its security apparatus and military wing cannot guarantee safety in the neighbourhood the Iran-allied movement dominates. Since it could provide no protection against hostile drone attacks, Hizbullah has been embarrassed and shamed. The strike took out two of Hamas’s al-Qassam Brigades commanders, Samir Fandi and Azzam Al-Aqraa, and other Hamas fighters as well as Arouri.

Hizbullah called the attack a “serious assault on Lebanon, its people, its security [and] sovereignty” and warned that “this crime will never pass without response and punishment”. However, Hizbullah will find it impossible to mount a major punitive cross-border operation against Israel. This would provide Tel Aviv with a pretext to wage full-scale war on Lebanon, while Israel has a US green light to assault and level Gaza without consequences.

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As a major political party and stakeholder in Lebanon, Hizbullah cannot afford a war with Israel. Hizbullah and Israel have engaged in carefully calibrated exchanges since the October 7th Hamas raid into Israel which killed 1,200, according to Israel, but have, so far, avoided dangerous escalation.

On December 8th, after particularly violent cross-border exchanges, Netanyahu threatened: “If Hizbullah chooses to start an all-out war, then it will, by its own hand, turn Beirut and southern Lebanon ... into Gaza and Khan Younis.” Israel has the air power to carry out his threat.

Mutual deterrence could restrain both sides. Hizbullah could be expected to respond to an Israeli onslaught on Lebanon by launching short-, medium- and long-range ballistic missiles at Israeli cities and towns. Reuters reported on October 30th that Hizbullah, the world’s most powerful non-state actor, had 100,000 missiles to launch at land, ship and air targets.

During the 2006 war between Hizbullah and Israel, the Israeli foreign ministry said 300,000-500,000 people had fled their homes in central and northern Israel, while more than a million Lebanese had been displaced.

The elimination of Arouri was timed to take place the evening before Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s television address on the fourth anniversary of the US assassination in Baghdad of Iranian Revolutionary Guard general Qassem Soleimani. During his hour-long speech, he focused on Soleimani’s role as a founder of the “axis of resistance” against Israel and its allies.

While repeating that Israel would be punished for killing Arouri, without specifying the means, Nasrallah ended by saying Hizbullah would be guided by “Lebanon’s situation and national interests” and would stick to the formula for limited exchanges as long as Israel did not attack Lebanon. In that eventuality, Hizbullah would respond with full force, he declared.

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