Pat Leahy: Sinn Féin will eventually make it into government

The point of Mary Lou McDonald’s leadership of Sinn Féin is becoming pretty clear: it is to bring the party into government in Dublin, something that would never have been possible under Gerry Adams.

As last weekend's bank holiday interview in The Irish Times makes clear, McDonald has clearly decided that there is no point being coy about this. She has made her intentions clear; and it doesn't really matter whether it's a coalition with Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil, either will do.

This historic political coupling might not happen after the next election. But it will probably happen not too far beyond that. One of the questions I get asked most often about politics by wealthy people is: will Sinn Féin get into government? My answer is: Yes, just not immediately.

But that day is coming. Tiocfaidh an lá, you might say.

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Of course, Sinn Féin will have to figure out what it wants to do in government when it gets there, how it will translate the populist political and economic rhetoric to which it is so devoted into the compromises, fiscal realities and incremental progress that every politician discovers is the reality of office.

Sinn Féin will have to figure out what it wants to do in government when it gets there

That process will be a shock to some of its activists, as they discover that the socialist republican paradise is not achievable overnight; though not, I suspect, to Mary Lou and the band of impatient young men and women around her. The logic of last weekend’s pitch is that Sinn Féin has given up on the idea of a broad left-led government.

And you might find that once the party enters government in Dublin, it miraculously finds itself able to do a deal in Stormont as well.

Post-election scramble

But before any of that, the party will need the co-operation of either Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil in the post-election scramble. Both parties have set their faces against it. So what, you might say – surely it is the way of politicians to promise one thing and then do another?

We’ll see. What it’s only fair to point out is that the two big parties approached this matter rather differently after the last election.

Micheál Martin pledged not to enter a coalition with Fine Gael last time, and – despite some pressure, the presence of some fifth columnists in his own ranks and confident predictions from some pundits (not this one, though) he didn’t. That was partly because he was desperate to show that Fianna Fáil could be taken at its word, and partly because his own grassroots would have been horrified at the prospect, many of them to the point of rebellion. Either way, Martin reckons he has built up credibility on the coalition issue.

In contrast, Enda Kenny promised he wouldn’t do a deal with Fianna Fáil and then ended up offering Micheál Martin half the Government.

Martin reckons he has built up credibility on the coalition issue

Prior to the public offer, there had been numerous private contacts between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil coalitionistas – prominent among them, one L Varadkar.

The same gentleman had previously warned that the so-called “grand coalition” would end in acrimony and divorce, wouldn’t be grand at all, and wouldn’t last. “The dream of a grand coalition would actually be a nightmare. It is why it cannot happen,” Varadkar wrote, weeks before trying to put one together.

Could Varadkar perform a similar volte-face after the next election on Sinn Féin? The historic nature of it would appeal to him, certainly. But his party would find it very hard to swallow. The two parties are culturally incompatible, to say the least of it. And culture – though not insurmountable in the medium term – still matters a lot in politics. More than policy, usually.

Weakened hand

And remember: there will be other options. It’s hard to find many fans of the minority government/confidence-and-supply arrangement in Leinster House. But the precedent has now been established. They might not like it, but it will be on the table after the next election. That will make Sinn Féin’s hand weaker.

The importance of the post-election competition – distinct from the election itself – is beginning to dawn on people in Leinster House. That’s one of the reasons why the big parties are showing such deference to Independents of all stripes. The big parties know they’ll be in a scramble to sign up TDs after polling day. Labour, the Greens and the Social Democrats can expect similar love-bombing. Lucky them.

The referendum outcome has warned everyone about big, late swings, but general election results rarely feature such late dramas. If the outcome is anywhere near where the polls have been trending – and we can expect that it will be – then nobody will have a clear majority.

The three principal options will be a repeat of the current arrangement, led by either Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil with the support of the other; a coalition with Sinn Féin; or a grand coalition of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. At present, the most likely of those three is the first.

The big question is who will be in first place: Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil? That will matter a lot, because the biggest party will have a big headstart on forming a government. At present, both of them fancy their chances.

Mary Lou is trying to keep Sinn Féin relevant in the last phase of an election campaign when the thoughts of voters turn to government formation. But ultimately, the most important electoral competition – still – will be between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil for biggest party status.

The two big parties are nowhere near as dominant as they once were. But they still rule the dominant centre of Irish politics.