Multi-billion-euro new railway lines for Northern Ireland are make-believe

Whenever Boris Johnson suggested a bridge or tunnel across the Irish Sea, a common retort was that a tiny fraction of its cost could fund a free ferry service.

This thought recurred following a story in this newspaper on Monday on the All-Island Strategic Rail Review. The review’s main proposal for Northern Ireland is believed to be rebuilding the long-closed line between Portadown and Derry. While not a fantasy on the Boris Bridge scale, the project remains so unlikely it would be kinder to promise the communities along its 120km route a free, high-quality bus service. That would be more plausible and practical.

Leaking of details from the review is itself a bad omen. Jointly commissioned by northern and southern Ministers in 2021, it cannot officially be released while Stormont is suspended. Instead, the Government intends to unilaterally publish a “draft” – not so much a leak as publicly turning on a tap. It seems Ministers have given up waiting for devolution to return. No Stormont means no hope of progressing major projects in Northern Ireland.

One credible northern proposal is a rail link for each of the region’s airports. Lines already run past all three. Although the line beside Belfast International has been mothballed, reopening it would also allow more services to Derry. That makes a whole new line to Derry even less realistic.

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Reports indicate the new line would largely follow a route abandoned in the mid-1960s, running west from Portadown through Dungannon, Omagh and Strabane. From there it could go to Derry then Letterkenny, or vice versa.

Because Derry already has a rail connection, a new line serving its population and Donegal beyond would have to be justified as a short cut. It would only be a short cut to Dublin, as it would not create a shorter route to Belfast. Journeys from Derry to Dublin would be shortened by 72km, but this falls to 40km if the line past Belfast International is reopened. Upgrading the existing line could make it faster at far less cost.

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The other justification for a new line is bringing rail service to the 50,000 residents of Dungannon, Omagh and Strabane. Campaigners hope a 120km historic line could then be rebuilt between Omagh and Sligo, bringing trains back to Co Fermanagh and joining the Republic’s western rail corridor. While this would neatly fill the gap on the railway map of Ireland, the only town of any size it would add to the network is Enniskillen, with 18,000 inhabitants.

Northern Ireland Railways has previously costed rebuilding old lines at €11.5 million per mile, plus a third again for new trains. That optimistic estimate would price the Derry line at €1.15 billion. Final costs would presumably double, if other projects are any guide.

For context, Stormont spends €92 million per year on public transport: €57 million on trains and the rest on buses. There was a significant investment backlog even before recent budget shortfalls. Multi-billion-euro new lines are make-believe. Of course, there is more to this than a simple financial appraisal.

Reversing decades of underinvestment in the west of Northern Ireland is a political imperative. Loss of rail has become totemic of a legacy of discrimination. It is often pointed out the lines that survived post-war rationalisation serve the places where most Protestants live. However, they also serve the places where most Catholics live. Three-quarters of the population is east of the Bann. Western lines were unviable and closing them made sense. The failure was not replacing them with promised motorways.

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The positive case for a new Derry line is to invest in a vision of balanced, sustainable development. On a timescale of decades, for flagship infrastructure, a one-dimensional business case can certainly be short-sighted, irrelevant and flat-out wrong.

But are railways the best way to deliver this vision? There is no electrification in Northern Ireland – trains will be diesel-powered, or hydrogen-powered at best, less environmentally friendly than electric buses available today. The frequency and rigidity of rail cannot serve rural populations as efficiently as buses, let alone tempt people out of their cars. Small-town stations mainly facilitate commuting – the opposite of sustainable development.

Although technology is on the horizon to make trains cheaper and greener, technology could also replace them in many cases. On-demand public transport – summoning minibuses by app – is expensive to run but cheaper than building a rural railway. The UK’s first self-driving scheduled bus service began in Edinburgh in May.

Most intriguing is the progress of small electric airliners, with the first production model launched this year. Denmark and Sweden will make all internal flights zero-emission by 2030 and other European countries are setting similar targets. This looks ideal for the 195km hop between Derry and Dublin. You might even be able to take a train to the airport.