SNP is behind in voter intentions but complacency could yet undo union
Opinion: Women are the most opposed of any category to Scottish independence
Nicola Sturgeon (centre) walks past a man draped in a Union flag outside the Scottish parliament in Edinburgh yesterday. Photograph: Getty Images
Little things tell a lot. Alex Salmond yesterday came to Glasgow to launch the Scottish government’s white paper on independence. And he quickly spoke about women.
The Scottish first minister, along with his deputy, Nicola Sturgeon, believes voters facing next September’s referendum are getting more information than any people ever had before.
Both the location and the choice of the opening subject were revealing about the Scottish National Party’s campaign and about the weaknesses they believe they need to overcome.
Glasgow is not a Scottish National Party heartland; but it is there, and in other parts of the west of Scotland, that the independence battle will be decided.
The districts around Glasgow’s Science Museum in Govan – some of the city’s most deprived – and others like them must be marshalled behind the “Yes Scotland” campaign if independence is to happen.
Meanwhile, both Salmond and Sturgeon sought to woo the women’s vote by offering “transformational” changes to childcare: free for all one year olds and 30 hours a week of it for three and four year olds.
The emphasis was not accidental, even if seen as tactical rather than strategic.
A majority of Scots, for now, oppose independence, or are warily undecided, but women are the most dubious of all.
Change on such a scale could not be contemplated now since the policy’s benefits – more tax from working women – would go to London, not to Edinburgh, but the costs would be Edinburgh’s to meet.
Even if the polls are currently less than favourable for Salmond, the September 2014 battle – an 80-year-old dream for the SNP – is far from won or lost.
Liberal Democrat Scottish secretary Alistair Carmichael, newly in office but already vigorous, last week warned the cabinet in London that complacency could yet undo the union.
Salmond has produced a 650-page document to answer Scots’ questions, covering everything from the currency that would be used by a free Scotland to the military alliances it would join, and much more.
All change vs no change
However, it faces a conundrum, having to argue that independence would change everything and – to soothe those fearful of the risks that it would bring – change little.
Everywhere, as one questioner pointed out, it uses the word “will” – even though so much will depend on negotiations that would follow a Yes vote for independence. The British government has said Scotland’s use of sterling would be “highly unlikely” – a view shared strongly by the Welsh government in Cardiff.
And, critics argue, if sterling is used then what kind of independence will it be? The euro has shown, says Labour’s Alistair Darling, that political union follows currency union.