Greying Tony Blair shtum on Chilcot report into Iraq war

Ex-PM’s decision to open Britain’s borders to east Europeans blamed for immigration levels

The atmosphere at Central Hall in Westminster this week was that of a well-heeled school reunion when Tony Blair took the stage to talk about "Britain in the World".

Sponsored by Prospect magazine and Blair’s Centre on Religion and Politics, the event was filled with the half-forgotten faces of former MPs and ministers from New Labour’s glory days.

“I’ve lots of things to do but how could I not be here?” one former MP asked me.

“Hold hands together and sing the old songs?”

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“That sort of thing.”

Greyer and thinner, Blair is still unmistakably himself, the big smile, the glottal stop and the sly hesitation the same as ever.

His political reputation, already badly mangled by the Iraq war, faces another blow in early July with the publication of the long-awaited Chilcot report into the war.

Blair has been advised, however, that he must not comment on the report - “not even a raised eyebrow” - so his most important foreign policy decision is effectively out of bounds.

He does comment on other global issues, suggesting that the best prospect for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict lies in offering a central role to the conservative Arab states in the region.

These states, he believes, share with both the Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority an interest in confronting Iran and radical Sunni Islamists, ranging from the Muslim Brotherhood to Islamic State.

Dreads prospect

He makes clear, without saying so directly, that he dreads the prospect of Donald Trump winning the US presidency.

“I’m trying to think of a way of not answering the question. I’m a bit out of practice,” he said.

He is more expansive on current British political issues, praising David Cameron’s focus on economic risk in the EU referendum campaign.

He believes Cameron could emerge from a successful referendum a substantially enhanced figure in Europe, allowing Britain to regain a leading role in shaping the future of the EU.

"There are a whole series of issues that are tackled in a much better way by Europe if Britain is there and active, and I think once David Cameron gets this issue out of the way, he's got the opportunity, in a sense, to say, look I've settled this issue inside Britain, and now we've got the opportunity to get the right type of relationship with Europe," he said.

“Britain, when it seeks to lead in Europe and when it builds the right kind of partnerships and alliances, usually gets its way. We did this over the single market, we did it over enlargement of Europe, which is still an enormous British achievement.

“We have actually done it in successive budget negotiations.”

Opening of borders 

The biggest issue for many of those who want to leave the EU is immigration, and Blair's decision to join Ireland and Sweden in opening Britain's borders to migrants from eastern Europe in 2004 is blamed for the high level of immigration today.

He defends the decision, arguing that immigrants contribute much more to Britain in enterprise and taxes than they receive in welfare payments, and pointing to the geopolitical importance of EU enlargement.

When the conversation turns to the condition of British politics and the rise of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the Labour party, he admits to being bewildered.

“I thought I was pretty good at politics. But when I look at politics today I’m not sure I understand it. I spend a lot of time trying to get my head around what’s really going on and how the centre – the centre-left and centre-right – seems to have lost its traction,” he said.

He says it is not yet clear if Corbynism can win an election, and lumps the far-left and the far-right in together as populists who ride public anger without offering an answer to it.

“What’s fascinating to me is where the fringes of left and right meet each other. Both are now essentially isolationist.

“They’re both, for example, coming out very strongly against free trade. It’s true that the left want to hang the bankers while the right want to clear out the immigrants, but in much of the psychology and attitude, they’ve got a lot in common,” he said.

He suggests that one reason for the failure of the centre-left and centre-right to break through is that they are perceived as managers of the status quo rather than seeking to change it. And without a new set of ideas for how to address the issues that matter to voters, they will be unable to start the fightback.

“We’re not in the right conversation about this,” he said.