Prospects poor for Rousseff as crisis endgame begins in Brazil

After more than a year of twists and turns, in which both sides have accumulated a string of minor victories and defeats, Brazil’s impeachment crisis is heading towards a climax this weekend.

On Monday night a congressional committee voted by 38 votes to 27 to recommend that President Dilma Rousseff be removed from office for breaking budgetary rules, clearing the way for the lower house to vote on the motion as early as Sunday.

If two-thirds of the chamber of deputies – 342 out of 515 – approve the impeachment motion, Rousseff will be suspended for up to six months while her fate is decided by the senate.

Even before the committee's vote was held, authorities had started constructing a fence in front of the congress building in Brasília to separate the tens of thousands of pro- and anti-impeachment demonstrators who are expected to descend on the capital for the vote.

In justifying his call for Rousseff's removal, the committee's rapporteur, congressman Jovair Arantes, said "no one believes any more in this government". Defending her, Brazil's attorney general, José Eduardo Cardozo, rubbished Arantes's report, saying the committee had failed to prove she had committed "crimes of responsibility", as demanded by the constitution, and warning that "history will not pardon violations of democracy".

The committee’s tense, day-long session was marked by verbal confrontations between the president’s supporters and opponents, and rival cries of “Dilma out!” and “There will be no coup!” ahead of voting.

The president's defeat was greater than had been predicted when the commission was installed last month, reflecting the recent melting away of her support in congress. According to a tally by the Estado de S Paulo newspaper, 292 deputies have now declared themselves in favour of impeachment, with 115 against.

Courted

The 106 undecideds are being furiously courted by both the administration and its opponents, with offers of ministries, other official positions and funding for pet projects. But in recent days Rousseff’s prospects of survival have been hit as several parties that had not formally broken with her government said they would vote in favour of impeachment or give their members a free vote.

In a simulation of the likely intentions of the undecideds, based on their previous voting behaviour and party and regional affiliations, analyst Eduardo Zylberstajn in the Estado de S Paulo predicted that 72 per cent of them would vote for impeachment, guaranteeing the motion's passage through the chamber.

The ruling Workers Party's efforts to prevent Rousseff's suspension are being hampered by widespread discontent at a deepening recession, the metastasising corruption crisis in state oil company Petrobras, which is spreading to other areas of the public sector, and polls showing that more than 60 per cent of Brazilians want her removed.

With midterm elections due in October, most parties are wary of being identified as having helped save such an unpopular president’s mandate.

Delay

The government might yet try to delay a vote in the full lower house by appealing to the supreme court, though it has so far been reluctant to interfere in what it sees as the internal rules of the legislature.

In an appeal to the court on Monday, Rousseff's supporters claimed that the head of the lower house, Eduardo Cunha, was not acting in a "republican manner" in his eagerness to rush an impeachment vote. Cunha tabled the motion in revenge for the failure of the president's Workers Party to shield him from punishment for lying about his own involvement in the Petrobras scandal, for which he also faces losing his mandate. A supreme court justice rejected the motion.

The Workers Party also sought to gain an advantage from the release of a recording by Rousseff's estranged vice-president, Michel Temer, in which he spoke as if impeachment had already passed and he was acting president.

Temer said the recording was made public by accident and was merely a rehearsal for any address he might have to give to the nation after a vote in the lower house. In the recording, he spoke of "a government of national salvation". Rousseff's cabinet chief, Jaques Wagner, said it exposed the vice-president as "the sponsor of the coup".

Some commentators questioned the traditionally discreet Temer's explanation of how the recording was made public. In it, he promised to maintain and expand popular social programmes such as the Bolsa Família (family purse) payments to poor families, which some interpreted as a clear bid for support by a leader whose rejection rating among voters is almost as high as Rousseff's.