Exit strategy could mark beginning of political end for Netanyahu

The Israeli security cabinet convened last night for the umpteenth time since the start of Israel’s “Operation Protective Edge”, now in its fourth week.

Monday's events, when 10 Israeli soldiers were killed during a ceasefire declared by militant groups, further increased the pressure on prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu to order a significant escalation in the military campaign.

The war is being conducted by Netanyahu, in tandem with defence minister Moshe Ya’alon and the army’s chief of staff, Lieut Gen Benny Gantz. All three seek an end to the conflict, preferably via a ceasefire agreement, as soon as the army has destroyed the offensive tunnels built by Hamas to carry out attacks inside Israel. However, this strategy is at odds with the public mood and the sentiments of a majority of the government.

A weekend poll found an overwhelming majority of the public – 86.5 per cent – believes that Israel cannot agree to a ceasefire as long as Hamas continues to fire rockets on Israel, as long as tunnels remain and as long as Hamas refuses to surrender.

Only 2.2 per cent described the military operation as “a great success for Israel”; 22.6 per cent described it as a “good success for Israel”, while the majority, 47.6 per cent, saw only mediocre success.

With mounting Israeli casualties – more than 50 soldiers killed and 130 still hospitalised – stopping the war without a significant military victory to boost Israel’s deterrence could be politically disastrous for the prime minister. Netanyahu can probably continue to muster a majority in the eight- member security cabinet, which to date has conducted the war, but he knows the full cabinet would be much more likely to approve a significant escalation.

On Monday night Netanyahu said the country should be prepared for a prolonged conflict, but the military is complaining that it doesn’t know what the politicians want. A senior military official said yesterday that the political echelon must decide now; either escalate or end the military campaign.

“We have achieved the goals that were set for us. The political leadership needs to take a decision if we are going in further or pulling out of the Gaza Strip.” However, he warned that occupying Gaza by force would “take months and years, with the price that would entail”.

Security cabinet member Naftali Bennett, the head of the far-right Jewish Home party, called on the world to step aside and let Israel “finish the job”, arguing that only a decisive Israeli victory would prevent the next war.

Options

Israel has four basic options: a unilateral end to hostilities; ending the war as part of a ceasefire agreement; expanding the military campaign with the aim of achieving a decisive victory; or going for broke, and toppling the Hamas regime. The dilemma is daunting , and Netanyahu must weigh domestic pressure for a decisive victory with mounting international pressure for a truce.

US president Barack Obama, in a phone call on Sunday, told Netanyahu in clear-cut terms that Washington wants an “immediate and unconditional ceasefire”. The entire region is watching, particularly Iran and Hizbullah in Lebanon, which, with an estimated 60,000 missiles – many of them sophisticated long-range projectiles with a powerful payload – poses a much greater strategic threat to Israel than Hamas.

In the 2006 election, Netanyahu adopted the slogan “Strong against Hamas”. His popularity rating remains high at present, but he is all too aware that an exit strategy perceived by the public as granting Hamas a victory could mark the beginning of the end of his political career.