Nato’s defence goals may be aided by Britain’s exit

Almost two years since the summit in Wales, global leaders are gathering in Warsaw for the 28th Nato summit.

The location of the meeting is replete with symbolism. Poland, which joined Nato in 1999, was once at the heart of the Soviet sphere of influence, its capital the site where the Warsaw Pact was signed in 1955.

For east European member states the summit is a chance to send a message of defiance to Russia. Since tensions flared with Moscow over Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea, Poland and the Baltic States have been nervously eyeing Russia’s expansionist moves, calling for more assurances from Nato that it is prepared to defend its eastern flank.

The proposal to send four new battalions to Poland and the Baltic states will be welcomed by these countries, even if the scale of the new commitments is unlikely to deter Russia. The decision by Germany to take part is perhaps a sign the country is taking a new leadership role in foreign policy.

International stage

But the timing of the summit, just two weeks after Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, means much of the attention during the two-day summit will be on Britain. The meeting will be prime minister David Cameron’s first major international engagement since the referendum, and Cameron will be keen to show Britain’s departure is not an indication of its increasing isolationism or withdrawal from the international sphere.

The fact that Britain will contribute to one of the four new Nato battalions in Estonia will be seen as a sign of its continued commitment to the defence alliance. But longer-term questions remain about the country’s position on the world stage, particularly if its spending commitments on defence can be met in the event that the economy continues to decline.

The Nato summit also has implications for the EU and its member states. Building on last week’s commitment by EU leaders to back accelerated practical co-operation between Nato and the EU, European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker and European Council president Donald Tusk will sign a joint EU-Nato declaration backing closer co-operation.

For Ireland, one of six EU countries not in Nato, the issue is highly sensitive.

Without prejudice

Irish officials Brussels have been working hard behind the scenes to ensure Ireland’s unique defence policy is respected. Last week’s conclusions said joint co-operation will be undertaken “in full respect of the decision-making autonomy and procedures of both organisations” and “without prejudice to the specific character of the defence policies of member states”. In a world where words and sentences are fought over by member states during negotiations, these provisos carry weight.

But the push for greater alignment between the EU and Nato is worrying in the long term, particularly as Ireland ponders its future in the EU without Britain.

While the exit of one of Europe’s strongest international players could be seen as a blow to EU foreign policy ambitions, Britain has in fact been one of the most vocal opponents of a common EU defence policy and an EU army. Its exit may unblock an obstacle for those who want the EU to strengthen its defence. Juncker, for example, has openly spoken of the need for an EU army.

As the EU reflects on its post-Brexit future, the question of the role the union can play in foreign and security policy is likely to emerge. For countries like Ireland, ensuring the policy of neutrality is protected will be a central concern.