US: George Bush saw this crisis as an opportunity to reshape the Middle East, but some fear it is too soon for a new version to be born, writes Denis Staunton in Washington
Marxist philosophers are seldom quoted in Washington think-tanks but Lebanese journalist Hisham Milhem reached for the words of Antonio Gramsci at the Brookings Institution yesterday, as he outlined the dangers posed by the conflict in his country: "The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born: in this interregnum, morbid phenomena of the most varied kind come to pass."
Yesterday's discussion came as the Bush administration appeared ready at last to back a ceasefire in Lebanon, with secretary of state Condoleezza Rice predicting that a UN resolution ending the violence could be in place by the end of this week.
The trigger for Washington's change of course was Israel's deadly air-strike on Qana and the international outrage that greeted the death of dozens of civilians there, most of whom were children. Before Qana, however, the US had already become impatient with an Israeli military operation that seemed to have failed in its objective of dealing a knock-out blow to Hizbullah.
Israeli general Michael Herzog, a former head of strategic planning, said yesterday that the campaign against Hizbullah had in fact been quite successful. "Israel is very thoroughly and systematically degrading Hezbullah's capability. They are suffering a very severe blow which sets them back years in military terms," he said.
Gen Herzog said Hizbullah had been unable to attack Haifa in recent days and predicted that Israel would be able to secure a narrow buffer zone along the southern Lebanese border "within a few days".
He acknowledged, however, that the Israeli campaign was not perceived as a success, partly because Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah had defined success for his side in terms of mere survival.
The US is concerned that a military operation designed to amplify Israel's deterrent power may instead have undermined the myth of Israeli military invincibility in the region.
Mr Hisham confirmed that, in the Arab world, Israel is perceived to be failing and Hizbullah is in the ascendant. "I have never before in my lifetime seen the Arab media poking fun at Israel and its military," he said.
The conditions for a ceasefire are broadly agreed upon - an exchange of prisoners, the deployment of an international force in southern Lebanon (possibly working with Lebanese government forces) and talks about disputed border areas.
Martin Indyk, who was US ambassador to Israel when Qana was shelled in 1996 with the deaths of more than 100 people, believes this week's tragedy there will provide a similar spur to peace. In 1996, the two sides agreed to a partial ceasefire that aimed to protect civilians from attack.
Mr Indyk believes that now is the moment for Dr Rice to negotiate at the United Nations for a ceasefire on the best conditions available.
"I think she needs to go to the security council today, trading US willingness to go for an immediate ceasefire for all these other elements," he said.
A ceasefire that leaves Hizbullah militarily weakened but intact and politically stronger would represent a gamble gone badly wrong for the Bush administration. President George Bush saw in the Israeli offensive a chance to advance his plan to reshape the region politically and Dr Rice described the violence as "the birth pangs of a new Middle East".
Mr Hisham suggested yesterday that the chaos throughout the region - in Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories - may be the last gasp of the old Middle East, but in Gramsci's words "the new cannot be born".
The US faces difficult choices in the weeks ahead, as it considers whether to engage with Syria in the hope of detaching Damascus from Tehran and seeks to repair relations with the Arab world that have been damaged by Washington's support for Israel's offensive.
As Mr Bush continued to speak in optimistic terms about the possible consequences of the conflict in Lebanon, Richard Haass, Mr Bush's former envoy to Northern Ireland and now chairman of the Council on Foreign Relations, was incredulous.
"An opportunity? Lord, spare me. I don't laugh a lot. That's the funniest thing I've heard in a long time. If this is an opportunity, what's Iraq? A once-in-a-lifetime chance?" he told the Washington Post.