The Ulster Unionist Party's anti-agreement activists are deadly serious about dislodging Mr David Trimble. They failed with previous putsches but, according to the "antis", they are operating with more cohesion and a steelier earnestness this time.
They know that, like the hangman's noose, nothing concentrates the mind of politicians more than the thought of "electoral meltdown", to use a favourite phrase of the main pretender to the throne, Mr Jeffrey Donaldson.
The Ulster Unionist Party would be badly damaged in the Westminster, local and Assembly elections it must face in the next three years. Mr Trimble and the Yes group within Ulster Unionism are holding their nerve thus far, but they know that time is of the essence.
So, what's going to happen? First, to the No side. Mr Donaldson obviously "is up for it". He is still hedging his bets, but no-one can be in any doubt what his big ambition is. His first move is to attempt to lock Mr Trimble into a virtually impossible policy position. His initial strategy is to resurrect the "no IRA guns, no government" policy because he believes that carries more disruptive opportunity than focusing on policing.
Mr Donaldson wants to see a special Ulster Unionist Council meeting within a matter of weeks to vote on the weapons motion.
If the current climate prevails at the time of a UUC meeting next month or in early November, it is almost certain that the motion would be adopted.
The IRA Army Council is unlikely to answer to the dictate of Mr Donaldson. So, in the absence of decommissioning, the four UUP Ministers, including Mr Trimble, would be obliged to walk away from the Executive, or else - and this would appear unlikely - do what Brian Faulkner did during Sunningdale in 1974 and break from the party, split the UUP and remain in office.
The first option would bring us back to a suspension of the Executive and probably into another period of review. Mr Trimble could be critically wounded in such an eventuality.
What can he do? He could call a UUC meeting to discuss the "no guns, no government" motion or table a diluted version of it. But that would signal defeat.
Should Mr Trimble find the resolve to battle on he will need assistance from the British and Irish governments, the SDLP and Sinn Fein. He met the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, in Dublin on Tuesday, and the Northern Secretary, Mr Peter Mandelson, on Monday in Brighton. The British and Irish governments want to help but they can only do so much.
There is a possibility of another IRA arms inspection, the so-called CBM (confidence-building measure), but at the moment absolutely no give on policing from the SDLP or Sinn Fein.
What remains in Mr Trimble's favour is the taunt that the antis have no alternative to the Belfast Agreement, except a return to community disharmony, and perhaps a return to violence.
If Mr Trimble is to have any chance of withstanding a challenge he needs a package which says to the majority of the 860-member Ulster Unionist Council: "Look what I have delivered. Neither Jeffrey Donaldson nor anyone in the No camp could do that." Whether he will get it will emerge in the next couple of weeks.