Slight fall in the jobless total unlikely to turn tide for Kohl

Just over two weeks before Germany's federal election, Chancellor Helmut Kohl's Christian Democrat party (CDU) is seizing on a slight fall in the jobless total to claim that the tide had turned in the battle against unemployment.

But a new opinion poll offered little comfort to the Chancellor, showing his party trailing the opposition Social Democrats (SPD) by 5 per cent.

Unemployment fell in August to its lowest level for two years but it remained above the psychologically important figure of four million. Dr Kohl predicted that the jobless figure would "certainly" fall below four million within the next two months and claimed that his government's policies were finally starting to bear fruit.

But the SPD candidate for chancellor, Mr Gerhard Schroder, warned that the fall in unemployment might not last and pointed out that more than a quarter of a million Germans are on government-funded job creation schemes.

"Before the 1994 election, the numbers also fell - and rose immediately afterwards. Anyone who wants to see a sustainable pick-up in the labour market has to vote for a change of government," he said.

Yesterday's poll by the Allensbach institute showed support for the SPD at 40.8 per cent, compared to 35.6 per cent for the CDU. The institute, which has predicted correctly the outcome of every German federal election since the end of the second World War, put support for both the Greens and Dr Kohl's allies at about 7 per cent, comfortably above the 5 per cent needed to win seats in the Bundestag.

The Chancellor's strategists hoped that the economic and political crisis in Russia would boost support for Dr Kohl, whose international experience is one of his strongest cards. But the Christian Democrat comeback appears to be stalled, with support for the party almost unchanged. More worryingly for the Chancellor, his party is actually losing popularity in the east of the country, where disappointment over the consequences of national unification could decide the outcome of the election.

Most analysts agree that Dr Kohl will need something close to a miracle to win a record fifth term in office on September 27th, but many doubt if the SPD and the Greens will secure an absolute majority between them. Both have ruled out forming a government with the support of the former communist Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS), leaving a grand coalition of Social Democrats and Christian Democrats as the most likely alternative.

Dr Kohl has ruled out taking part in such a coalition but most of his party colleagues are more equivocal. For his part, Mr Schroder is encouraging speculation about an alliance with the CDU, in the hope of attracting floating conservative voters.

The Chancellor is banking on a boost for his campaign on Sunday when Bavaria votes in a state election. Dr Kohl's conservative allies in the Christian Social Union (CSU) are almost certain to win a majority of seats in the state parliament. But the Prime Minister, Mr Edmund Stoiber, has set himself the goal of retaining the support of more than 50 per cent of the electorate.

This could prove difficult, partly on account of growing support for small, local parties, such as the Ecological Democratic Party and the Free Voters. The small parties are unlikely to secure seats in parliament but, with most of their support coming from disillusioned CSU voters, they could prevent Mr Stoiber from reaching his goal.

The German government yesterday criticised Britain for failing to implement an EU ban on the Yugoslav state carrier, JAT, over the crisis in Kosovo.