DRAPIER/An Insider's Guide to Politics: 'I do rather object to the consensus that's emerging that somehow this whole election is about the Labour Party being the kingmakers," Seamus Brennan said during the week.
Well Seamus may well object, but he's correct about the emerging consensus that Labour will be the kingmakers. Ever since Ruairí Quinn's invocation to his Christmas revellers and Pat Rabbitte's unilateral declaration, the Labour Party has held centre stage.
On the one hand, Bertie Ahern uses his New Year interview to plead with the Labour rank-and- file to follow him rather than Ruairí. On the other hand, Jim Mitchell pleads with a peppery Brendan Howlin for a pact that would see Fianna Fáil turned out of office.
Like Michael Noonan, Brennan's remarks betray an acceptance that the election campaign is already underway. A lot of colleagues are wondering aloud whether this intensity can be maintained for five months. Clearly Noel Dempsey doesn't think so, as he is the first Cabinet minister to hint that April may be the fateful date.
It's hard to be certain whether there is a fierce debate going on inside the Labour Party or whether the current prominence derives from a thought-out strategy. Perhaps a bit of both, because notwithstanding recent polls, the shrewd money says that it will not be possible to form a government without Labour.
If Fianna Fáil believed that the most recent poll would be reflected on polling day, they would know they could return to office with the assistance of an even further diminished PD party and a few Independents. Drapier detects no confidence in here that the IMS poll predictions will be borne out after what promises to be a full-blooded campaign.
One colleague known for his track record in this area opined this week that if Fianna Fáil believed its core vote to be 43 per cent, it wouldn't give a damn what the Labour Party got up to.
The unexpected intervention of Dick Spring from the Kerry capital gave an additional boost to Labour morale. Spring has deliberately allowed his successor space to do the job his way. But his carefully calibrated interview this week was a clear signal to his own electorate in North Kerry, and to Ruairí Quinn, that he intends to be a force in the next Dáil.
That will be music to the ears of his home town, which benefited significantly from his spell as Tánaiste and foreign minister. The headline writers highlighted the fact that Spring didn't rule out doing business with Fianna Fáil, which must have brought a wry smile to the face of the retiring Albert Reynolds.
In fact, Spring was explicit in his stated preference for a coalition arrangement with Fine Gael. He said a pact could be considered but rebuked Jim Mitchell for hawking it onto the front pages rather than discussing it behind closed doors.
Elsewhere, two other Kerrymen, John O'Donoghue and Martin Ferris of Sinn Féin, slugged it out wherever they could find a radio studio. Ferris did well, but clearly Fianna Fáil believes that the refusal to disown the IRA and by highlighting vigilantism in Tralee they will do damage to his candidacy.
If Dick Spring's interview was unexpected, a much less reported interview by Michael Noonan was remarkable. Noonan tore into Fianna Fáil, claiming the FF/PD Government had squandered the boom.
Perhaps all standard stuff, but it was his stated willingness to consider any proposal from Labour to share the office of taoiseach that caught Drapier's attention. Is Ruairí Quinn to become the first Labour taoiseach?
As Noonan is fond of saying, a half-dozen extra seats will return a Fine Gael-Labour-Greens government. Ruairí Quinn, while standing resolutely by his mandate from Cork for Labour to fight the election as an independent party, has expressed the same preference.
But Quinn as taoiseach? Could this be the next phase of the Labour strategy? Well, he was a successful finance minister and one of the most experienced members of the Oireachtas.
By common consent, he is a politician more suited to government than opposition. Michael Noonan, unlike Quinn, knows that he has only one option and that is to do business with Labour or face the fate he organised for John Bruton. Noonan, however, is unlikely to repeat Bruton's mistake in 1992 when he sought to dictate to Dick Spring the exclusion of the Democratic Left from government. Therefore Noonan will do whatever deal has to be done and Labour are acting as if they know it.
Seamus Brennan does not accept that scenario and neither does Bertie Ahern.
But the majority of colleagues in here seem to accept that a return of the present coalition is not possible even with support from Independents and Sinn Féin.
Much also depends on how Bertie and Fianna Fáil emerge from the proposed abortion referendum. Some Fianna Fáil ministers and backbenchers are extremely nervous, believing that by its nature it could go awfully wrong.
But all accept now that Bertie will go ahead. Mary Harney's opposition is entirely verbal and she will acquiesce in whatever Bertie wants. Again, notwithstanding recent polls, Drapier believes that the proponents of the referendum will scrape over the line.
However, this is one area where getting a result may not be enough and the coalition could be damaged in the process.
Bertie, however, is determined to present himself as the man for all seasons. Boom or bust, Bertie is your man.
One wag in the Dáil Bar, on hearing of Bertie's display of his trade union credentials to woo the brethren in Liberty Hall, remarked that searching trade union files to authenticate Bertie's trade union claims is a bit like scouring UCD and the LSE to source his academic claims.
But here, perception is as important as reality.