Shia party dominant in final Iraq poll results

IRAQ: The Shia religious alliance emerged yesterday as the largest single party in Iraq's new parliament but fell 10 seats short of an absolute majority.

The Shia United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) won 128 of the 275 seats in the December 15th poll, down from 145 held in the transitional assembly. The UIA is dominated by the Dawa party of outgoing prime minister Ibrahim Jaafari and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Resistance in Iraq headed by Abdel Aziz Hakim who is seen as the chief power broker in the country.

The second-largest grouping is the Kurdish bloc, with 53 seats. It comprised the Kurdish Democratic Party of Massoud Barzani and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan led by the incumbent president, Jalal Talabani.

The National Accord Front, a Sunni religious coalition headed by Adnan Dulaimi, came third with 44 seats, and former premier Ayad Allawi's secular Iraqiyya List was fourth with 25. Although the strength of his list was reduced from 40 seats, the National Dialogue Front, another secular grouping with 11 seats, headed by the outspoken Saleh Mutlak, can be expected to take a common stand with Iraqiyya on the contentious issues of the role of Islamic law in the new Iraq and the degree of autonomy granted to provinces and regions under a federal structure.

Fourteen seats were secured by small Kurdish, Sunni, Shia, Turkomen, Christian and Yazidi parties. The Yazidis are a tribal sect affiliated with the Zoroastrians of Iran.

The UIA can count on the backing of the Shia Risaliyoun party, with two seats, as well as the Kurdish bloc, the Shias' coalition partner for the past year. The UIA and the Kurds have the 181 seats of the total of 275 needed to appoint a president, launch the process of forming a new government, and decide whether or not the constitution will be amended to suit the Sunnis and secularists.

Although the US has been pressing the UIA and the Kurds to bring in Sunnis and secularists, Mr Hakim has dismissed Washington's appeals, saying that Iraq will be governed by the 60 per cent Shia majority rather than by a "consensus" reached by a national unity government. The UIA and the Kurdish bloc have been negotiating during the past three weeks on posts in the government and on its policies. Mr Hakim and the Kurdish leaders support largely autonomous regions made up of at least three northern Kurdish provinces and as many as nine southern Shia provinces. Sunnis and secularists oppose this policy, arguing that the formation of a southern region, in particular, would lead to the break-up of the country. But since the Sunnis and secularists do not hold a third of the seats, they cannot block legislation adopted by the Shia-Kurdish two-thirds. Sunnis and secularists also fear the close ties enjoyed by the UIA and Mr Talabani with Iran, which has become the most influential external political force in Iraq. It is unlikely, therefore, that the inclusion of more Sunnis will diminish the insurgency.

Politicians have four days to contest the results, which were in line with preliminary returns. Officials will have 10 days to study complaints before the results are certified and parliament convenes.

Meanwhile, Mr Dulaimi called for the release of Jill Carroll, the 28-year old freelance journalist for the Christian Science Monitor, who was kidnapped on January 7th near his office where she had gone for an interview.

The kidnappers have threatened to kill her unless all female detainees were freed by yesterday. Although the authorities agreed to free six of eight female detainees, none emerged yesterday. Mr Dulaimi promised to strive for the release of all women prisoners but warned that failure to free Ms Carroll would "undermine and hamper my efforts".

US and Iraqi forces stepped up security measures to coincide with the publication of the election results. Thousands of police manned checkpoints and patrolled roads in Baghdad, Anbar, Diyala, Najaf and Mosul provinces.

Restive towns and neighbourhoods were sealed off and US and Iraqi troops raided the southern Baghdad quarter of Dora at dawn to hunt for local insurgent chiefs. The clampdown was expected to continue through today.

A roadside bomb exploded in central Baghdad's Karradah district as a US convoy drove along a main street, killing four Iraqi civilians and wounding three. A senior Iraqi police officer and his four bodyguards were kidnapped by armed men, some wearing military uniforms.