Shape of European house becomes clearer despite semi-detached Tories

Anxious days these for Fianna Fail in the new European Parliament. Old alliances have been shaken up by the new post-election balance of forces and the complex shifting sands of French politics, with small parties vying for influence, positions and staff in the 626-member parliament, where size is everything.

Ahead of the July 20th opening of the new parliament intensive intra- and inter-group discussions are under way. For some of the smaller groupings the writing is definitely on the wall, but optimistic sources close to Fianna Fail predict that, despite serious Gaullist defections, its Union for Europe (UFE), somewhat changed, will survive and play a key part in the emergence of a new centre-right alliance which can challenge the traditional influence of the Socialists.

The parliamentary arithmetic for the big battalions, the Socialists and the centrist European People's Party - of which Fine Gael is a member - is now pretty clear. The latter, having taken over the Socialists' role as the largest party, have secured the continued, semi-detached allegiance of the 36 wavering British Conservatives.

The Tories are "attached" to the group for parliamentary purposes but not members of the broader European party, reflecting their discomfort with a party that is traditionally strongly pro-European and supportive of the euro.

For some of the EPP, no less than many Tories, the alliance of convenience is deeply uncomfortable. Munster's John Cushnahan denounced it last week in the strongest terms as a "betrayal" of the group's principles. "Christian Democrat politicians have been the driving force behind the European ideal," he argued, pointing to the incompatibility of the Tories' recent manifesto with those ideals.

"Allowing the Tories to remain with the EPP would be a prostitution of our fundamental principles," he said, promising to raise the issue again with group leaders.

Although he says his view is widely shared there is little prospect of success. The EPP, also boosted by the defection of six Chiracian Gaullists (RPR) from the UFE, and the likely addition of Dana Rosemary Scallan,will have 232 seats (from 201), and is preparing to take the presidency of the parliament for the first half of the new term for its French member, Nicole Fontaine.

The Socialists, now on 180, down from 214, have made a small post-election gain from the European Radical Alliance (ARE) in the form of a handful of French Radicals under Ms Catherine Lalumiere. A bitter post-mortem has seen the ousting of their group leader, Pauline Green, in favour of Spain's Enrique Baron Crespo.

The former Portuguese Socialist President, Mario Soares, is now expected to take the second half of the presidency of the parliament.

The Liberals, under the leadership of Pat Cox, re-elected yesterday unanimously, have consolidated their status as the third party of the parliament, boosting their small electoral gains to 50 by recruiting the seven Italian supporters of the Commission President-designate, Mr Romano Prodi.

Mr Cox's incisive interventions in the January debates on the commission ensured that any suggestion that he was only a caretaker have been decisively dispelled. No mean feat for a oneman national delegation. Two other groups will definitely survive: the Greens, probably in a substantially expanded new alliance, and the United Left/Nordic Greens, bolstered to 40 from 34 when joined by a new contingent of French Trotskyists and a third Greek communist party.

The Greens, the real winners of the elections and up from 27 to 38, are involved in discussions with the 10 regional autonomist parties previously in ARE - the Scot Nats, Plaid Cyrmu, and nationalists from Catalonia, the Basque country, and Flanders. A successful alliance, with a new name to reflect both traditions, would be a powerful new force in the parliament with 48 seats, snapping at the heels of the Liberals.

And then there is the UFE, teetering on the brink of extinction because of the Gaullist defections, but probably going to survive by recruiting fall-out from others. Party officials are understood to believe that the group is still viable and can help broker an anti-Socialist majority involving the EPP and Liberals.

It is a theoretically possible, but difficult, alliance which should be able to put together a majority of over 314 votes, although EPP leaders believe they will still need Socialist support to run the parliament effectively.

At the core of the UFE are Fianna Fail's six MEPs, two Portuguese and probably the nine deputies of Italy's Alleanza Nazionale (AN), who have for some time been promised membership.

AN has been cleaning up its act since its emergence from the ranks of the fascist MSI in the mid-1990s. The party has refused to have anything to do with far-right groups like the French National Front in the European Parliament, and a spokesman insisted to this reporter that "AN is not a continuation of the MSI, but a new formation".

Fianna Fail is also understood to be involved in discussions with the 13 French Eurosceptics (RFIE) under Charles Pasqua who are anxious to leave the Europe of the Nations group, and they may also succeed in recruiting the six French hunting and fishing MEPs, elected for the first time to defend the rural way of life. A potential total for UFE of 36 members, up two on last time, but distinctly more right-wing.

The defections from the ARE and Europe of the Nations groups mean both are unlikely to be viable and will disappear, posing particular problems for the Italian Radicals under Commissioner Emma Bonino, a few Danish Eurosceptics and the Ulster Unionist Jim Nicholson.

That will also leave still homeless, and unlikely to find a home, the far-right groups from Belgium (Vlaams Blok), Italy (Liga Nord), France (Front National) and Austria (Freedom Party), as well as the three new UK Independence Party members and the Rev Ian Paisley.