Reading between a confusion of soundbites

It's frenetic out there, but in the stolen, quieter moments as one awaits Monday's deadline for a general verdict on the British…

It's frenetic out there, but in the stolen, quieter moments as one awaits Monday's deadline for a general verdict on the British-Irish blueprint, one harbours suspicions of someone engaging in a policy of heavy-duty disinformation.

As expected, the gathering of the Sinn Fein council of chiefs in Castlebellingham, Co Louth, yesterday left us none the wiser about the IRA's intentions on putting their arsenals beyond use.

The mood music from Mr Adams wasn't quite as discordant and carping as the faultfinding analysis the previous night from Sinn Fein's Mr Gerry Kelly, but neither could it be interpreted as positive. It was another classic holding operation from Sinn Fein.

Sinn Fein leaders will meet Dr John Reid in Hillsborough today, mainly to seek clarification of what they already know. The Ulster Unionists, the SDLP and the Alliance also met Dr Reid yesterday and afterwards were still holding fire on their definitive attitude to the package.

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There is pressure on the SDLP to declare if it would nominate members to the Policing Board in the event of the police implementation plan being acceptable. Virtually all SDLP demands are understood to be incorporated in the plan, but yesterday Mr John Hume and his colleagues were refusing to show their hand.

What did cause surprise was the great restraint of the Yes wing of Ulster Unionism. The Industry Minister, Sir Reg Empey, knows how obnoxious to unionists some of the police proposals are, but after leaving Dr Reid at Hillsborough yesterday he resisted the urge to inform us of his anger. It's obvious senior Ulster Unionists have not yet given up on the IRA.

What also raises eyebrows is the line from Dublin and London that the British and Irish governments really don't know whether the IRA will deliver. "They couldn't be that stupid, could they?" was one senior unionist's take on the matter.

His argument was that if the governments did not have cast-iron guarantees on decommissioning republicans would just try to pocket all the gains on policing, demilitarisation and safeguarding the institutions without offering anything in response.

Journalists were struck on Wednesday too by how Dr Reid and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, acted as if walking through a semantic minefield when asked about IRA decommissioning. They stressed again and again with almost embarrassing sensitivity that putting arms beyond use was a voluntary act - there were no preconditions; there was nothing prescriptive about the document.

An explanation of another event also caused surprise. On Thursday morning, Mr David Trimble and Sir Reg Empey met Mr Gerry Adams and Mr Martin McGuinness at Stormont, ostensibly to discuss the violence in north Belfast.

It was an unproductive, ill-tempered affair, sources said. One unionist source allowed that decommissioning was raised on the margins but that "Gerry Adams just warbled on in his usual manner" and no answers were provided as to the IRA's next move.

In the week of the unspeakable murder of Gavin Brett, it made sense that senior politicians were addressing sectarian violence. But what was the point of heavyweights of the stature of Mr Adams, Mr McGuinness, Mr Trimble and Sir Reg Empey taking time out for a mere bout of recrimination, which is what we were told it was, when there were serious politics to be conducted?

So, there is strange movement in the undergrowth. Yet, despite the manoeuvring and posturing, the governments warn against any assumption of a done deal.

The IRA may continue to astonish the governments and the other parties with its ingratitude. Or it could issue a grudging declaration on the continuing silence of the guns and its peaceful intentions, which would not be enough for Mr Trimble. The result would be fresh elections or the suspension of the Assembly and executive.

Or it could act generously by accepting that the proposals meet the bulk of republican demands and by then doing what it knows is necessary to rescue the Belfast Agreement.

What remains certain is that this boat won't float without IRA movement on weapons. As to whether and to what extent it might happen, that remains impossible to determine.

Everyone is waiting for the IRA. In the meantime, the UUP, Sinn Fein and the SDLP are cagily eyeing each other. They are anxious not to be caught offside. Hence the reluctance of all parties to declare their final positions on the blueprint.