Poll reverse leaves Rainbow Coalition 12 points behind FF and PDs

THE Rainbow Coalition has slipped back to 12 percentage points behind Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats as the preferred combination to form the next Government, according to the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll, published today.

The Taoiseach seems to be hearing the impact of the Dunnes payments tribunal, with a drop of 8 points in his personal rating in five weeks. His party, Fine Gael, is showing a 4 point decline in support.

The number of undecideds has increased by 2 points to 17 per cent. Excluding them, the state of the parties is: Fianna Fail 43 per cent, unchanged since the end of March; Fine Gael 26 per cent, down 4 points; Labour 12 per cent, up 1 point; PDs 8 per cent, unchanged; Democratic Left 2 per cent, unchanged; and the Green Party 3 per cent, up 1 point. The support for Others has increased from 4 to 6 per cent, comprising Independents 4 per cent, Sinn Fein 1 per cent and Workers' Party 1 per cent.

Fianna Fail's core support has dropped to 36 per cent, down 1 point; Fine Gael has decreased to 22 per cent, down 3 points; and Labour has increased by 1 point to 10 per cent.

This Irish Times/MRBI poll was conducted among a national quota sample of 1,000 electors at 100 sampling points throughout all constituencies last Saturday, May 3rd, and Monday, May 5th, after the conclusion of the first phase of oral evidence to the Dunnes payments tribunal.

The findings come at the worst possible time for the three Coalition leaders, who planned to call the general election next Wednesday or Thursday. They calculated that the two alternative combinations for the next government would be neck and neck at that stage. The opinion poll findings will force a reconsideration of strategy by the Rainbow, which may consider holding the election in the autumn. However, Government strategists have been saying that the preparations for a June 6th election have gone beyond the point of no return.

The poll's main finding that Fine Gael is damaged more than Fianna Fail by the Dunnes payments tribunal will come as shock to the Government and a surprise to Fianna Fail. The Government's satisfaction rating has dropped by 4 points to 49 per cent since the end of March.

The Taoiseach, Mr Bruton, is harmed most by the poll findings. His personal rating has fallen by 8 points, from 63 to 55 per cent, arising from the conflicts in his evidence about party fundraising between the beef tribunal in 1992 and the Dunnes tribunal.

The Tanaiste, Mr Spring, who also gave evidence to the tribunal, has suffered a fall in his satisfaction rating, down 5 points to 49 per cent. The Minister for Social Welfare, Mr De Rossa, sees no change in his 43 per cent rating.

The personal rating of the Fianna Fail leader, Mr Bertie Ahern, has increased by 1 point to 59 per cent over five weeks, reflecting satisfaction with his handling at the recent Fianna Fail Ard Fheis of Mr Ben Dunne's allegation that he paid £1.3 million to the former Taoiseach, Mr Charles Haughey.

The PD leader, Ms Mary Harney, is showing a 3 point drop - to 64 per cent - in her satisfaction rating.

Turning to voters' preferences for the two coalition combinations on offer in the general election, a gap of 12 points has reemerged between Fianna Fail/PDs and their Rainbow opponents. That gap had narrowed to only 6 points five weeks ago.

Some 44 per cent - up 1 point - would prefer a Fianna Fail/PD coalition, while 32 per cent - down 5 points - would choose a government of Fine Gael, Labour and DL. A further 11 per cent would prefer neither and 13 per cent are undecided.

Taking the overall shift in the poll, the 4 point drop in Fine Gael support has split evenly between the undecideds (up 2 points), the Labour Party (up 1) and the Green Party (up 1).