PD analysisIt's hard to know whether "gutted" or "devastated" is the best word to describe the feelings of ousted Progressive Democrats TDs and their supporters. Repeated prophesies of doom throughout the campaign did not serve to lessen the shock when it finally came.
The loss of six seats out of eight was due to a combination of local and national factors. In Laois-Offaly, for example, it is clear that the farm vote deserted Tom Parlon and returned to Fine Gael in the person of Charles Flanagan. Parlon supporters feel more than a little aggrieved, given the amount of work they say their man did for the farming cause. Why didn't the farmers vote for one of their own, they ask, pointing out that the constituency is sending three solicitors, Brian Cowen, Olwyn Enright and Charles Flanagan, to the Dáil.
In the party leader's own constituency of Dublin South-East, home-owners were reported to be annoyed with Michael McDowell for putting the issue of stamp duty on the agenda late last year, thereby, it is claimed, contributing to the standstill in the property market.
But there were also national issues, notably the party's varying positions on Bertie Ahern's personal finances. Parlon may have suffered because prison officers in Portlaoise were annoyed with McDowell in his role of Minister for Justice.
Barristers living in Dublin South East were ticked off with the PD leader over the Criminal Justice Bill. Medical consultants in the same constituency were annoyed with PD Minister for Health Mary Harney. This is the middle-class heartland of Dublin 4 and the "Donnybrook set" where, as one observer put it, you can't throw a stone without hitting a lawyer or a consultant.
There may be many reasons why the party's vote suffered, but suffer it did. Parlon's first preferences fell by more than half, from 9,088 in 2002 to 4,233 this time; McDowell plummeted from 6,093 to 4,450; Liz O'Donnell from 8,288 to 4,045; Fiona O'Malley from 7,166 to 3,959.
Now that McDowell has announced his departure from politics, Harney has taken over the reins on a temporary basis. Commenting on the post-election situation, she said last night: "We are prepared to play our part in a coherent, stable government."
Interviewed by Ursula Halligan on TV3, defeated TD Fiona O'Malley described McDowell's resignation as "a little rash". Many would agree that he would have been wiser to wait a day or two and make the announcement under circumstances where his political enemies would not be on hand to taunt and jeer. Politics is a cruel trade and this was an election for the big battalions, with smaller parties getting squeezed.
Yet the Irish political system is very hospitable to minority parties by comparison with, say, Britain. The PDs have already had three lengthy stints in cabinet and even now, at their lowest ebb, are likely to have a fourth.
Despite their reduced Dáil representation, there is still a sizeable cohort of PD activists on the ground and, when the party's national executive meets in Dublin on Wednesday, they will doubtless focus on what many regard as the true pith and substance of politics which is, in the words of the late Indian prime minister Indira Gandhi, the getting and wielding of power.
So can the PDs once again rise from the political grave? The omens are not very good. The party is now so small at parliamentary level that it is hard to see a revival. On issues such as taxation and market economics, the PDs are seen as having won the argument. Besides all that, Fine Gael and the PDs were supping from the same well in terms of votes. A resurgent Fine Gael is bad for the PDs.
In the past, the PDs have caught the mood of the voters, notably with McDowell's "One-Party Government? No Thanks!" poster in 2002. They failed to do it this time and the most dignified option now might be to find a home in a larger party. But like them or loathe them, after the PDs, Irish politics will never be the same again.