Off-colour Greens cannot blame it all on the squeeze

Green Party analysis The Greens return to the Dáil with six seats, the same number they left with, having gained one TD and …

Green Party analysisThe Greens return to the Dáil with six seats, the same number they left with, having gained one TD and lost another.

It is a poor result when set against the party's target of gaining up to four seats.

The 4.8 per cent of the vote the party secured is nowhere near the 6 per cent to 8 per cent support it was enjoying in the polls.

Fundamental to the Greens poorer than expected performance was their failure to communicate their wider policies to potential voters and to avoid being sidelined as a niche party.

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Environmental issues have been prominent in the national and international media for the last 12 months and, as one party figure has said, this meant the television news could be as good as a party political broadcast for the Greens. Yet the environment does not appear to have featured as a major issue with voters.

Bar its party political broadcast, regarded as one of the best of the election, the Green campaign struggled to be heard above the larger parties. This question of how to convince the electorate it is more than a niche party is a fundamental one the party will have to examine closely.

The defeat of Dan Boyle in Cork South Central is a considerable blow. Boyle is one of the principal architects of the party's evolution as a more professional one with a more comprehensive range of policies.

He has also been a key figure in drawing up its potential coalition and negotiation strategy, and is likely to continue with a backroom position at a minimum.

The election in Carlow-Kilkenny of its deputy leader, Mary White, is a much-needed boost. She is one of its most eloquent speakers and a moderate voice. Having previously argued against continuing the party's ban on corporate donations, she has also shown an ability to appeal to a rural electorate which often eludes the party.

Within the Greens, blame for the party's poor showing is being placed firmly on the wider phenomenon of the "big squeeze" from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. As Boyle noted: "The voters retreated back to civil war lines."

The crucial factor in the Greens retaining six seats was their ability to attract transfers from all parties.

Party leader Trevor Sargent put in a formidable performance to take the second seat in Dublin North. He and running mate Joe Corr took 16.7 per cent of the vote.

In Dublin Mid-West, Paul Gogarty also polled relatively well on the first count, although his first-preference vote was down marginally. It was a high transfer rate from Independents and Sinn Féin which saw him taking the second seat. Eamon Ryan also held his seat in Dublin South with 11 per cent of the first-preference vote.

In Dún Laoghaire, Ciarán Cuffe managed to take the final seat only after transfers from Fine Gael enabled him to leapfrog socialist Richard Boyd Barrett.

In Dublin South East, John Gormley's vote dropped by two percentage points on 2002, leaving him in a battle with Michael McDowell for the final seat, which he won by just 204 votes. Gormley needed the transfers he got from the elimination of Fianna Fáil candidate Jim O'Callaghan to stay ahead of the PD leader.

There is also evidence that the squeeze from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael was not the only factor at play in the party's relatively poor performance. Boyle lost his seat in Cork South Central not to Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil but to Labour.

The big squeeze is also insufficient to explain the poor showing of Deirdre de Búrca in Wicklow and Niall Ó Brolcháin in Galway West. Ó Brolcháin polled less than 6 per cent of the first-preference vote, in what was the most disappointing result for the party.

De Búrca improved her first preference vote to just under 5,000 votes, but would have needed another 1,000 to be in with a serious chance of taking the seat. This should be seen against the fact that environmental issues such as planning, rezoning and illegal dumping have been the primary local issues in the constituency for the past five years.

Other tipped candidates also failed to perform. Tony McDermott in Dublin South Central and Brian Meaney in Clare were nowhere near taking a seat, although Mark Deary polled a respectable 7.4 per cent in Louth.