No-fly zone problem is political, not logistical

ANALYSIS:FROM A military perspective, the enforcement of a no-fly zone (NFZ) over Libya would be relatively unproblematic. Nato and the United States have significant air and air-support assets in the southern Mediterranean already. The US Sixth Fleet is stationed off Libya and has a major support base in Gaeta, southern Italy. The US aircraft carrier USS Enterprise is also en route to the area from the Red Sea.

In addition to these deployed naval assets, Nato also has recourse to British military bases in Cyprus and Malta capable of supporting air combat operations over Libya.

Indeed, the US and Britain have significant experience of enforcing NFZs over Iraq and Kosovo. Between 1992 and 2003 the Americans and British mounted Operation Northern Watch and Operation Southern Watch in Iraqi airspace to protect Kurdish and Shia civilians respectively from aerial and artillery bombardment by Saddam Hussein’s forces.

In 1999 the US, British and other Nato allies enforced a sustained and controversial NFZ over Kosovo which effectively grounded the Serbian air force for several months.

In enforcing no-fly zones in Iraq the US, France and Britain enjoyed the support of the Turkish and Saudi air forces in order to copper-fasten regional political and diplomatic support for their air operations.

In any NFZ operation contemplated for Libya, Nato would need to enlist the support of Arab nations in the region and would require their direct participation in such operations – if indeed they were to succeed in securing the necessary UN Security Council mandate.

Libya’s armed forces would not be in a position to defend itself meaningfully against a co-ordinated air assault from a military alliance enjoying the support of Nato’s assets in the region. The Libyan air force has a small number of serviceable aircraft organised into rudimentary air defence and close ground support squadrons.

The aircraft consist of Soviet-manufactured MiG fighter jets and bombers as well as a small fleet of Russian-manufactured helicopter gunships. Libya’s air force would not pose a serious threat to Nato-backed forces.

Libya’s geography also lends itself to the enforcement of a NFZ there. Almost 80 per cent of Libya’s population is concentrated in cities and towns located on its northern coastline beside the Mediterranean.

This area runs from the capital Tripoli in the west to Benghazi, Tobruk and El Alamein to the east. This narrow strip of territory – from the Tunisian border on the west to the Egyptian border on the east – represents a relatively small air corridor approximately 3,000km long and 500km deep.

Most of Libya’s air defence assets – aircraft, missile units and command and control centres – are located in this area.

It took the US and its allies just 100 aircraft to enforce two NFZs over Iraq. The USS Enterprise carries about 70 aircraft and is capable of destroying Libya’s air defence assets and air forces.

Significant obstacles and challenges confront any military alliance intent on enforcing a NFZ over Libya, however.

A UN Security Council resolution on the matter may prove difficult to obtain. In the initial wave of attacks on Libyan air defence assets there inevitably would be civilian casualties.

In this environment it would be difficult to secure and maintain Arab support for such an endeavour.

Dr Tom Clonan is the Irish Times security analyst