McCain `crusade' may have foundered after attack on leaders of Christian right

Johnny, We Hardly Knew Ye...

Johnny, We Hardly Knew Ye...

And if the pundits are right, if what the polls show today hold true until Tuesday, we may never know Senator John McCain.

Months before anyone gave him a remote chance of winning the Republican nomination for president, Mr McCain and a lonely band of volunteers were traipsing through the woods of New Hampshire, shaking hands, touting a message of reform and trying to find any nearby baby to kiss in the tradition of American politics.

After his victory in New Hampshire, a come-from-behind affair that stunned a Republican Party establishment firmly behind the Texas Governor, Mr George W. Bush, Mr McCain was the "story of the moment". His previously underfunded campaign began attracting donations from thousands of people across the country. Since New Hampshire, he has raised over $7 million from small donors contributing via the internet.

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Such was the excitement and focus on the McCain "crusade" that the Democratic Party contest between Vice President Al Gore and the underdog, Senator Bill Bradley, was all but eclipsed. At one point, Senator Bradley used his mobile phone to call reporters travelling with Mr McCain to say, jokingly: "How are ya? We haven't seen much of you guys. We have a campaign too, you know."

The McCain story, which overwhelmed all else, cost Mr Bradley dearly. He dropped some 30 points in most polls, to the point where one commentator described this week's televised debate between Mr Gore and Mr Bradley as "historic". It was historic, noted New Yorker magazine writer Joe Klein wryly, because it was the first "postcampaign debate. The campaign is over."

So while things are not nearly as bad for Mr McCain as they are for Mr Bradley - who at this moment is still in the race - it has been a very, very bad week for Mr McCain.

In the marathon that is the campaign, any candidate is going to have bad weeks. It is inevitable. But you do not want your bad week to happen now, on the eve of so-called Super Tuesday, the most important day of the campaign for the party's nomination. The two largest states, California and New York, will select their party nominee on Tuesday, as will Ohio, a large industrial state in the mid-west. A cluster of states in New England - Maine, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Vermont - will vote. The majority of delegates to the party conventions will be selected, and the conventional wisdom is that the nominating process will be all but over by Wednesday morning.

In a display of purposeful intent but questionable timing, Senator McCain this week attacked two leaders of the so-called Christian right who are supporting Mr Bush. He called television evangelist the Rev Pat Robertson and the Rev Jerry Falwell "agents of intolerance" who had brought "evil" to the Republican Party. Both men represent rather extremist right-wing positions on most social issues; nonetheless, they both represent considerable constituencies within the Republican Party.

"Republicans everywhere are wondering whether Mr McCain's daring attempt to redefine his party is an act of historic farsightedness or self-destruction," declared the New York Times in a lead editorial.

On the heels of this squabble, Mr McCain then pulled out of a planned televised debate in California with Mr Bush and Mr Alan Keyes, a conservative candidate whose role in the campaign now is largely one of comic relief. Mr McCain blamed Mr Bush for creating a scheduling conflict. Most California voters however didn't care about scheduling conflicts. All they heard was that Mr McCain was not going to be in California for the debate.

At the last minute, Mr McCain agreed to appear at the debate via satellite, which he did on Thursday evening. The result was a rather strange affair, with Mr Bush and Mr Keyes standing beside podiums, and Mr McCain's head appearing on a television screen beside a podium. The disembodied presence did little to highlight Mr McCain's strengths or charisma.

Press coverage of all the candidates in California has also been underwhelming. The biggest sign of their presence is the traffic jams being caused by the motorcades, leading many people to simply look forward to the end of this on Tuesday.

In New York, Mr McCain is the target of a brutal television, mail and radio advertising campaign organised by Governor George Pataki, a Bush supporter. The ads portray Mr McCain as an enemy of New York, claim that he has voted against New York interests in the US Senate, and is an opponent of breast cancer research.

The ads are so harsh that the New York Mayor, Mr Rudy Guiliani, a Republican and no shrinking violet when it comes to fighting words, has distanced himself from the effort and refused to be associated with the Bush ads.