McAleese still in front as Roche vote collapses

Prof Mary McAleese maintains a strong lead over the other candidates in the presidential election, although her support has dropped. Ms Adi Roche's vote has collapsed. These are the main findings of the latest Irish Times/ MRBI opinion poll published today. The poll shows a drop of 3 percentage points, to 32 per cent, in Prof McAleese's support over the last two weeks. Ms Roche's vote has dropped by nine points to 13 per cent. These losses are influenced by the last-minute nomination of the Independent candidate, Mr Derek Nally.

The first-preference vote for the five candidates is as follows: Prof McAleese 32 per cent, down three points since the last poll two weeks ago; Ms Mary Banotti 24 per cent, up one point; Ms Roche 13 per cent, down nine points; Mr Nally, who was not included in the last poll, 7 per cent; and Dana, Mrs Rosemary Scallon 7 per cent, unchanged. The level of undecided voters has increased by four points to 17 per cent.

Based on these results, Prof McAleese would be comfortably elected President on the fourth count, following the elimination of Dana, Mr Nally and Ms Roche. She then records 57 per cent compared to Ms Banotti's 43 per cent.

The poll was conducted among a national quota sample of 1,000 voters at 100 sampling points throughout all constituencies last Saturday, October 11th. A ballot paper with the names of all five candidates was presented to respondents.

The most surprising feature of poll is the very high level of cross-party first-preference and transfer voting between the candidates. Prof McAleese still commands only 50 per cent of the Fianna Fail vote, but she gets 20 per cent support from Fine Gael, 17 per cent from Labour, 24 per cent from Progressive Democrats and 21 per cent from other voters.

Ms Banotti, likewise, receives only 50 per cent of the Fine Gael vote, with 13 per cent support from Fianna Fail, 22 per cent from Labour, 28 per cent from PDs and 21 per cent from other voters.

Ms Roche's support among Labour voters has dropped significantly, down from 42 per cent to 33 per cent. She gets 12 per cent support from Fianna Fail, 6 per cent from Fine Gael, 20 per cent from the PDs and 14 per cent from other voters.

Mr Nally's 11th-hour entry has seriously affected Ms Roche's campaign. He receives 8 per cent support from Fianna Fail, 6 per cent from Fine Gael, 9 per cent from Labour, 8 per cent from PDs and 10 per cent of other. Dana's support is unaffected by his candidature.

A few other factors revealed in the poll will make it extraordinarily difficult for party strategists to take command of the campaign. Both Prof McAleese and Ms Banotti benefit equally from the elimination of Dana and Ms Roche. Prof McAleese gets much more of Mr Nally's transfers than Ms Banotti. Both Prof McAleese and Ms Banotti have lost some support in Dublin, where Mr Nally comes in third at 11 per cent.

Almost half of voters generally, 48 per cent, and one-third of Fianna Fail supporters, believe the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, handled the Ray Burke affair badly. Some 30 per cent think he handled it well; 22 per cent don't know.

Some 39 per cent of general voters and one-third of PD supporters believe that the Tanaiste, Ms Harney, handled the Burke controversy badly. A total of 32 per cent think she handled it well; 29 per cent don't know.

The level of satisfaction with the Government has dropped by seven points to 55 per cent in the two weeks. The dissatisfaction level has increased by eight points to 34 per cent.

With 16 per cent undecided, the current state of the parties is: Fianna Fail 50 per cent, unchanged in two weeks; Fine Gael 26 per cent, up one point; Labour 13 per cent, unchanged; PDs 3 per cent, up one point; Democratic Left 2 per cent, up one point; Green Party 2 per cent, down one point; Workers' Party nil, down one point; Sinn Fein 1 per cent, down one point; others 3 per cent, up one point.

With the referendum on Cabinet confidentiality coinciding with the presidential election on October 30th, some 72 per cent of voters believe the public should have access to all relevant information about Cabinet discussions. Only 20 per cent support the limited access proposed in the referendum. Some 5 per cent think the absolute ban, placed by the Supreme Court in a judgment during the beef tribunal, should be retained.